From: Liz Strauss; Successful and Outstanding Bloggers
The following decisions for business growth were developed and posted by a group of successful entrepreneurs. We have highlighted the ones that seemed highly effective. Please see the link for the full list and comments. Like many of us who are entrepreneurs…we can use all the help we can get. Again, that is what our ZDT blog is all about.
Their decisions:
Have a strategy
“I saw that my supposed weakness (being one lone person) is actually my strength. As a solo operator, I don’t have to deal with time-suck meetings, clients that are assigned to me, having to go through a bunch of committees to get things approved, etc. I can organize my time, smarts and effort to be more nimble, more responsive, more knowledgeable and quicker-on-the-draw than anyone else.”
Turn Decisions into Action
“The best decision I made was to decide to grow it instead of just wishing it had already grown, setting goals, then creating and following a plan to reach those goals.”
Stay a Learner
“The best decision I’ve made in 2010 to grow my business is, consequently, the best decision I’ve made in other years, namely: to keep breaking new ground through learning new methods, new media and new solutions around which I can build new practice areas for my business.”
Enlist Reinforcements
“I’m now bringing this same energy and enthusiasm - okay, call it passion - to All of my work, with all of the customers, clients, and companies I work for, to my training programs and workshops, keynotes, and every part of my life. All because I changed my thinking. You cannot do it all alone. Reach out. Connect. Share. And mean it.”
Let Go to Create
“I’m letting go of deals that were not there in the first place. Just that one action saved a lot of time that I was able to put to use more productively.”
Nurture and Feed Your Purpose
“I took time away from my business, in order to grow my business. After three days at a terrific business conference, I took three days of quiet reflection with only a few friends. The result is a better focus, renewed purpose, and many new ideas, and now I’m sure I’m on the right course to grow in 2010.”
Live the Person You Want to Be
“More than half of any business success is showing up with all that you have…integrity, consistency, competence, confidence, and compassion.”
For the full article:
http://www.successful-blog.com/1/20-all-star-entrepreneurs-best-decisions-to-grow-their-business/
Zillion Dollar Thinking
Posts
All Comments
Please visit me at ProducersWEB.com
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
A Sticky Situation: Forensic Decisioning
Subject: BP oil spill.
Forensic Accounting Definition: Providing an accounting analysis (many times after the fact) that is suitable to the court which will form the basis for discussion, debate and ultimately dispute resolution.
Because of the magnitude of this disaster, the complexity and cover of darkness of the incident, the theory and practice of forensic accounting could objectivity be shadowed by a similar process given the facts in this case…forensic decisioning.
Forensic Decisioning Definition: Providing a decision making analysis (at all levels) that is suitable to the court which will form the basis for discussion, debate and ultimate dispute resolution.
In each of the following decisions highlighted, the forensic question and mystery that would need to be answered is: HOW was the decision made?
Wall Street Journal
5-25-10
By STEPHEN POWER
Oil giant BP PLC told congressional investigators that a decision to continue work on an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico after a test warned that something was wrong may have been a "fundamental mistake," according to a memo released by two lawmakers Tuesday.
The document describes a wide array of mistakes in the fateful final hours aboard the Deepwater Horizon-but the main revelation is that BP now says there was a clear warning sign of a "very large abnormality" in the well, but work proceeded anyway.
The rig exploded about two hours later.
Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704026204575265701607603066.html?KEYWORDS=decisions
msnbc.com news services
Wed., May 26, 2010
Brown said the top Transocean official on the rig grumbled, "Well, I guess that's what we have those pinchers for"…which he took to be a reference to devices on the blowout preventer, the five-story piece of equipment that can slam a well shut in an emergency.
The argument concerned "displacing the riser," Brown said, a reference to a decision made by rig personnel to remove heavy drilling mud from the drill pipe and replace it with sea water, in an attempt to wrap up drilling operations and plug the well with cement until it was ready for production.
Drilling mud is a mixture of synthetic ingredients that is pumped into the well to exert downward pressure and prevent a column of oil and gas from rushing up the pipe.
The switch presumably would have allowed the company to remove the fluid and use it for another project, but the seawater would have provided less weight to counteract the surging pressure from the ocean depths.
Because water is lighter and less dense than mud, the procedure allowed a flood of flammable methane gas to surge up the drill pipe, which ignited and led to a catastrophic fire, according to documents from the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Conflicting pressure tests
Congressional investigators say BP and Transocean made a decision late on April 20 to begin removing mud from within the drill pipe despite pressure tests from within the well that a BP official described as "not satisfactory" and "inconclusive."
Earlier in the day, well pressure tests showed an imbalance between the drill pipe choke and kill lines running from the drill deck to the blowout preventer. The pressure in the drill pipe was 1,400 pounds per square inch, while the choke and kill lines read zero PSI, according to BP documents gathered by the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
In BP's internal investigation, made public by the committee, BP said it might have been a "fundamental mistake" to continue with the procedure because there was an "indication of a very large abnormality."
The statements obtained by The Associated Press include those by Truitt Crawford, a Transocean worker who told Coast Guard investigators about similar complaints.
Full Article:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37363106/ns/gulf_oil_spill/
“Deeply disturbing”
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar called the latest report "deeply disturbing" and said it highlights the need for changes he has proposed, including a plan [Decision] to abolish the minerals agency and replace it with three new entities.
The report "is further evidence of the cozy relationship between some elements of MMS and the oil and gas industry," Salazar said Tuesday. "I appreciate and fully support the inspector general's strong work to root out the bad apples in MMS."
Salazar said several employees cited in the report have resigned, were fired or were referred for prosecution. Actions may be taken against others as warranted, he said.
Top Kill:
Engineers Try to Control Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill; Louisiana Asks for More Help
BP Tries Pumping Mud Down Pipe to Stop Oil Flow; Gov. Bobby Jindal Asks for Supplies
By NED POTTER, AYANA HARRY and BRADLEY BLACKBURN
May 26, 2010
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/bp-oil-spill-engineers-begin-top-kill-effort/story?id=10751007
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said today that his state doesn't have what it needs to fight the spread of BP's oil. All eyes are on the latest plan to stop the Gulf oil spill.
"We need more boom, more skimmers, more jack-up barges," Jindal said at an angry news conference in Venice, Louisiana, complaining that Louisiana has received a fraction of the supplies it requested to protect itself from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
"More than 100 miles of our shoreline has been impacted by the oil spill. That is more than the entire sea coastline of Mississippi and Alabama combined," the governor said.
Yet, Other Countries Offer Aid…
While the governor asks for more supplies, a number of countries said today that the U.S. government and BP had yet to take them up on offers of assistance, including booms and skimmers.
The State Department said in a briefing today that 17 countries had offered assistance, including Canada , Mexico, South Korea, Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland , Japan, the Netherlands, Norway , Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. BP added another two countries to that list, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
While BP has accepted some supplies, including booms and skimmers from Norway, most other countries said they were waiting for a response [Decision] from the U.S. government.
The Decision?
"We have the equipment," said Ferran Tarradellas, a spokesman for the European Union agency coordinating Europe's response, "but at this point in time, we have not received any requests."
Full Article:
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/bp-oil-spill-engineers-begin-top-killeffort/story?id=10751007&page=3
ZDT author’s note:
Again, the question is: How were these decisions being made? In the forensic process, the “how” issue can potentially mitigate the same mistakes being made going forward. Considering the lives, money, industry, ecosystems and every other contingency at stake in this case, that should be a small but vital request. (To be continued)…
Forensic Accounting Definition: Providing an accounting analysis (many times after the fact) that is suitable to the court which will form the basis for discussion, debate and ultimately dispute resolution.
Because of the magnitude of this disaster, the complexity and cover of darkness of the incident, the theory and practice of forensic accounting could objectivity be shadowed by a similar process given the facts in this case…forensic decisioning.
Forensic Decisioning Definition: Providing a decision making analysis (at all levels) that is suitable to the court which will form the basis for discussion, debate and ultimate dispute resolution.
In each of the following decisions highlighted, the forensic question and mystery that would need to be answered is: HOW was the decision made?
Wall Street Journal
5-25-10
By STEPHEN POWER
Oil giant BP PLC told congressional investigators that a decision to continue work on an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico after a test warned that something was wrong may have been a "fundamental mistake," according to a memo released by two lawmakers Tuesday.
The document describes a wide array of mistakes in the fateful final hours aboard the Deepwater Horizon-but the main revelation is that BP now says there was a clear warning sign of a "very large abnormality" in the well, but work proceeded anyway.
The rig exploded about two hours later.
Full article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704026204575265701607603066.html?KEYWORDS=decisions
msnbc.com news services
Wed., May 26, 2010
Brown said the top Transocean official on the rig grumbled, "Well, I guess that's what we have those pinchers for"…which he took to be a reference to devices on the blowout preventer, the five-story piece of equipment that can slam a well shut in an emergency.
The argument concerned "displacing the riser," Brown said, a reference to a decision made by rig personnel to remove heavy drilling mud from the drill pipe and replace it with sea water, in an attempt to wrap up drilling operations and plug the well with cement until it was ready for production.
Drilling mud is a mixture of synthetic ingredients that is pumped into the well to exert downward pressure and prevent a column of oil and gas from rushing up the pipe.
The switch presumably would have allowed the company to remove the fluid and use it for another project, but the seawater would have provided less weight to counteract the surging pressure from the ocean depths.
Because water is lighter and less dense than mud, the procedure allowed a flood of flammable methane gas to surge up the drill pipe, which ignited and led to a catastrophic fire, according to documents from the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Conflicting pressure tests
Congressional investigators say BP and Transocean made a decision late on April 20 to begin removing mud from within the drill pipe despite pressure tests from within the well that a BP official described as "not satisfactory" and "inconclusive."
Earlier in the day, well pressure tests showed an imbalance between the drill pipe choke and kill lines running from the drill deck to the blowout preventer. The pressure in the drill pipe was 1,400 pounds per square inch, while the choke and kill lines read zero PSI, according to BP documents gathered by the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
In BP's internal investigation, made public by the committee, BP said it might have been a "fundamental mistake" to continue with the procedure because there was an "indication of a very large abnormality."
The statements obtained by The Associated Press include those by Truitt Crawford, a Transocean worker who told Coast Guard investigators about similar complaints.
Full Article:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37363106/ns/gulf_oil_spill/
“Deeply disturbing”
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar called the latest report "deeply disturbing" and said it highlights the need for changes he has proposed, including a plan [Decision] to abolish the minerals agency and replace it with three new entities.
The report "is further evidence of the cozy relationship between some elements of MMS and the oil and gas industry," Salazar said Tuesday. "I appreciate and fully support the inspector general's strong work to root out the bad apples in MMS."
Salazar said several employees cited in the report have resigned, were fired or were referred for prosecution. Actions may be taken against others as warranted, he said.
Top Kill:
Engineers Try to Control Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill; Louisiana Asks for More Help
BP Tries Pumping Mud Down Pipe to Stop Oil Flow; Gov. Bobby Jindal Asks for Supplies
By NED POTTER, AYANA HARRY and BRADLEY BLACKBURN
May 26, 2010
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/bp-oil-spill-engineers-begin-top-kill-effort/story?id=10751007
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said today that his state doesn't have what it needs to fight the spread of BP's oil. All eyes are on the latest plan to stop the Gulf oil spill.
"We need more boom, more skimmers, more jack-up barges," Jindal said at an angry news conference in Venice, Louisiana, complaining that Louisiana has received a fraction of the supplies it requested to protect itself from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
"More than 100 miles of our shoreline has been impacted by the oil spill. That is more than the entire sea coastline of Mississippi and Alabama combined," the governor said.
Yet, Other Countries Offer Aid…
While the governor asks for more supplies, a number of countries said today that the U.S. government and BP had yet to take them up on offers of assistance, including booms and skimmers.
The State Department said in a briefing today that 17 countries had offered assistance, including Canada , Mexico, South Korea, Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland , Japan, the Netherlands, Norway , Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Vietnam. BP added another two countries to that list, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
While BP has accepted some supplies, including booms and skimmers from Norway, most other countries said they were waiting for a response [Decision] from the U.S. government.
The Decision?
"We have the equipment," said Ferran Tarradellas, a spokesman for the European Union agency coordinating Europe's response, "but at this point in time, we have not received any requests."
Full Article:
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/bp-oil-spill-engineers-begin-top-killeffort/story?id=10751007&page=3
ZDT author’s note:
Again, the question is: How were these decisions being made? In the forensic process, the “how” issue can potentially mitigate the same mistakes being made going forward. Considering the lives, money, industry, ecosystems and every other contingency at stake in this case, that should be a small but vital request. (To be continued)…
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Taking Risks and Making Good Decisions
Permission to re-post by:
Michael Karnjanaprakorn
http://www.mikekarnj.com/blog/2010/05/20/taking-risks-and-making-good-decisions/
Recently, I gave a talk at the Harvest Hobby event about poker, risk taking and decision making. While giving the talk, I slowly realized that no one in the audience really cared about the intricate strategies behind poker. Terms like “check-raising” and “sucking out” didn’t really resonate with a crowd of non-poker players. Then I quickly realized that the audience related to the real life examples that I gave near the end about decision making and relationships (DUH!), which is what inspired this article I’m writing tonight. (Also, I can’t take credit for the thoughts below as everything I’ve learned were based on mentoring from Annie Duke & Rafe Furst). So, here we go!
Wikipedia defines decision making as “the mental processes resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives.” Pretty obvious right? Poker is a game of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, which is caused by chance and imperfect information.
“The higher the uncertainty, the higher the risk, so your goal is to reduce uncertainty.”
There are 1,326 distinct possible combinations of hole cards your opponent might be holding. If you can narrow that to a range between 10-20, you’ve allowed yourself to make a better decision by reducing uncertainty. You’ll never *know* what they’ll have, which is why poker is mathematically unsolvable, but as long as you make enough good decisions in the long run, you’ll be a winning poker player.
"In life, your goal is to reduce uncertainty and connect the quality of your decisions with the quality of your outcomes by taking calculated risks. You want to take calculated risks (decisions) when the upside outweighs the downside.”
If you’re completely unhappy with your 9-5 job right now, you’ll still be unhappy 25 years down the road doing that same job on the brink of retirement. This outcome will not change unless you identify what you want out of life, and start taking some calculated risks to get you there. Think about what you’re missing out on life by not taking some type of risk right now. The opportunity cost of possibilities is tremendous!
Taking calculated risks has nothing to do with “losing” because you can always learn from your “losses” and mistakes. Your goal at this stage is to increase your confidence and risk tolerance to try bigger things later.
You can do this by taking small baby steps while minimizing the downside. This could be as simple as talking to a stranger in the street who could end up being your wife, or traveling to an exotic location for the experience. This is why some poker players are comfortable buying in for $100, while others buy-in to a poker game for $1M. They slowly built up their confidence and risk tolerance to get to that level.
So, let’s say you want to be an entrepreneur. You can start by researching (Step One: Due Diligence), developing a plan (Step Three: Solution), launching a prototype (Step Four: Action), etc. to build your confidence and risk tolerance to swing for the fences later. The goal of your business plan isn’t to convince others that you business is going to work. It’s to convince yourself that your idea is going to work.
Success throughout your life comes from making good decisions by reducing uncertainty and taking calculated risks. The more risks you take in your life, the more chances you’ll have to maximize your happiness and be successful. So what are you waiting for? What risks in your life are worth taking right now?
ZDT Author’s note:
Notice that in the summary statement the formula contained three of the four steps in the MODELTM System. Not bad.
This approach makes a unique and often overlooked statement: The role that risk takes in the process of decision making. Many times the risk (or the perception of it) is what causes the apprehension to actually make the real decision, and where the statement “I’ll need to think about it” comes from…so, using techniques, systems and formulas that can mitigate risk is more essential than many are willing to recognize. Hopefully, these little revelations will help…Remember our meme.
Michael Karnjanaprakorn
http://www.mikekarnj.com/blog/2010/05/20/taking-risks-and-making-good-decisions/
Recently, I gave a talk at the Harvest Hobby event about poker, risk taking and decision making. While giving the talk, I slowly realized that no one in the audience really cared about the intricate strategies behind poker. Terms like “check-raising” and “sucking out” didn’t really resonate with a crowd of non-poker players. Then I quickly realized that the audience related to the real life examples that I gave near the end about decision making and relationships (DUH!), which is what inspired this article I’m writing tonight. (Also, I can’t take credit for the thoughts below as everything I’ve learned were based on mentoring from Annie Duke & Rafe Furst). So, here we go!
Wikipedia defines decision making as “the mental processes resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives.” Pretty obvious right? Poker is a game of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, which is caused by chance and imperfect information.
“The higher the uncertainty, the higher the risk, so your goal is to reduce uncertainty.”
There are 1,326 distinct possible combinations of hole cards your opponent might be holding. If you can narrow that to a range between 10-20, you’ve allowed yourself to make a better decision by reducing uncertainty. You’ll never *know* what they’ll have, which is why poker is mathematically unsolvable, but as long as you make enough good decisions in the long run, you’ll be a winning poker player.
"In life, your goal is to reduce uncertainty and connect the quality of your decisions with the quality of your outcomes by taking calculated risks. You want to take calculated risks (decisions) when the upside outweighs the downside.”
If you’re completely unhappy with your 9-5 job right now, you’ll still be unhappy 25 years down the road doing that same job on the brink of retirement. This outcome will not change unless you identify what you want out of life, and start taking some calculated risks to get you there. Think about what you’re missing out on life by not taking some type of risk right now. The opportunity cost of possibilities is tremendous!
Taking calculated risks has nothing to do with “losing” because you can always learn from your “losses” and mistakes. Your goal at this stage is to increase your confidence and risk tolerance to try bigger things later.
You can do this by taking small baby steps while minimizing the downside. This could be as simple as talking to a stranger in the street who could end up being your wife, or traveling to an exotic location for the experience. This is why some poker players are comfortable buying in for $100, while others buy-in to a poker game for $1M. They slowly built up their confidence and risk tolerance to get to that level.
So, let’s say you want to be an entrepreneur. You can start by researching (Step One: Due Diligence), developing a plan (Step Three: Solution), launching a prototype (Step Four: Action), etc. to build your confidence and risk tolerance to swing for the fences later. The goal of your business plan isn’t to convince others that you business is going to work. It’s to convince yourself that your idea is going to work.
Success throughout your life comes from making good decisions by reducing uncertainty and taking calculated risks. The more risks you take in your life, the more chances you’ll have to maximize your happiness and be successful. So what are you waiting for? What risks in your life are worth taking right now?
ZDT Author’s note:
Notice that in the summary statement the formula contained three of the four steps in the MODELTM System. Not bad.
This approach makes a unique and often overlooked statement: The role that risk takes in the process of decision making. Many times the risk (or the perception of it) is what causes the apprehension to actually make the real decision, and where the statement “I’ll need to think about it” comes from…so, using techniques, systems and formulas that can mitigate risk is more essential than many are willing to recognize. Hopefully, these little revelations will help…Remember our meme.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
New Retirees Often Make Poor Decisions
Re-Post from the Financial Advisor
http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/5575-new-retirees-often-make-poor-decisions.html
The period right after retirement, when people have just stopped working, can be the most critical period for investors, say experts, and yet it’s also a time when people make decisions with their guts that they ought to be making with their heads.
People are often unwilling to take risks during this period—say, by keeping investments in the stock market. Yet at the same time they’re ignoring the risk of longevity, or what might happen with their money if they live another 30 years and have to deal with the inflated costs of food, shelter and (even more sobering) health care. Imagine trying to spend 1986 dollars on health care today.
So it goes that behavioral finance has become the topic du jour, and insurance company Allianz has gone out and plumbed the thinking of 10 experts in the area, creating a report called “Behavioral Finance and the Post-Retirement Crisis.” The report discusses why investors make certain decisions about products like annuities, then digs into why that behavior might not always be in their best interests. It also considers how such behavior might be changed.
One observation of the report is that retiree aversion risk is often greatly amplified. Professor Eric Johnson of Columbia University recently worked with the AARP and the American Council of Life Insurers to look at risk-taking behavior. Where normally a gambler in Atlantic City would risk a $3 loss to make a $6 gain, retirees are in the woodshed by that time.
“Nearly half of the retirees said that they would refuse a gamble with a 50% chance of winning $100 and a 50% chance of losing as little as $10, which suggests they weighted losses about 10 times more heavily than gains,” says the report.
And that kind of aversion can have a dramatic effect on what they do with money after they retire…say, when they are faced with the choice of taking a lump sum distribution of money or annuitizing. Johnson says that handing over the money to an insurance company can seem like “losing” the money, and because the psychological effect is double, handing over $250,000 can seem like handing over half a million, he says.
Investors might also not realize that they’re thinking in terms of nominal dollars not real dollars. Professor Jeffrey Brown of the University of Illinois found that an investment spurned by retirees when framed one way might be embraced when it is framed another way. He took a $100,000 savings account with 4% interest and put that in front of 1,300 people older than 50, asking them if they preferred that to a life annuity paying $650 a month. The two choices were actually designed to have the same actuarial value. But only 21% liked it when it was positioned as an investment, whereas 70% preferred it when it was positioned as a monthly income stream, not an investment. The investment moniker had more risk associated with it.
Such behavior has come under greater scrutiny as investors continue to reel from the financial crisis. People tend to take a rear-view mirror view to the choices they make, says the report.
“I find a very strong negative relationship between a bad stock market return and annuitization,” said Alessandro Previtero, a fellow at the Anderson School of Management at UCLA, at the press meeting. “After a negative trend in the stock market, individuals are more likely to take an annuity. After a positive time, they are more likely to take the lump sum.”
“People make long-term binding financial decisions based on the last six months of the stock market,” echoed Shlomo Benartzi, a professor and co-chair of the behavioral decision-making group at UCLA. Benartzi said that the behavioral finance element of an advisor’s work will become more important as investors become more responsible for their own decision-making in the defined contribution era.
“What we’re trying to do is take behavioral finance and apply it not just to the accumulation phase, but to the de-accumulation phase.”
Among other items in the report is a checklist for advisors to ask themselves and clients. Among the questions are, “Is the retirement income strategy framed in terms of the monthly income a retiree will receive?” and “Are the implications of today’s financial decisions vividly presented so employees see how their lives will be affected?” The report also looks at the problems of cognitive impairment as people age, with a special regard for impaired math skills in people’s later years.
ZDT author’s note:
Notice in the very first paragraph that they pinpoint process over gut feelings. It is becoming more and more distinct that when dealing with money or financial decisions an objective trackable process is more preferable than if the decision is emotionally driven (like getting married). Again, when this entire subject of decision making is closely examined, the sharp dividing line becomes factual process or emotional feeling.
Example: When it comes to retirement or any long-term savings goal, the impact and fact of inflation becomes a critical consideration. The cumulative effect of compounding…at even low rates of inflation can multiply any figures exponentially. An inflation rate of just 3% compounded over 10 years can erode purchasing power by 25%. Compounded over 20 years, a 3% inflation rate can reduce purchasing power by nearly 50%. These are indisputable facts and should have a firm place in the process of retirement planning decisions. The opposite: “I feel like I need to buy me some gold.”
http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/5575-new-retirees-often-make-poor-decisions.html
The period right after retirement, when people have just stopped working, can be the most critical period for investors, say experts, and yet it’s also a time when people make decisions with their guts that they ought to be making with their heads.
People are often unwilling to take risks during this period—say, by keeping investments in the stock market. Yet at the same time they’re ignoring the risk of longevity, or what might happen with their money if they live another 30 years and have to deal with the inflated costs of food, shelter and (even more sobering) health care. Imagine trying to spend 1986 dollars on health care today.
So it goes that behavioral finance has become the topic du jour, and insurance company Allianz has gone out and plumbed the thinking of 10 experts in the area, creating a report called “Behavioral Finance and the Post-Retirement Crisis.” The report discusses why investors make certain decisions about products like annuities, then digs into why that behavior might not always be in their best interests. It also considers how such behavior might be changed.
One observation of the report is that retiree aversion risk is often greatly amplified. Professor Eric Johnson of Columbia University recently worked with the AARP and the American Council of Life Insurers to look at risk-taking behavior. Where normally a gambler in Atlantic City would risk a $3 loss to make a $6 gain, retirees are in the woodshed by that time.
“Nearly half of the retirees said that they would refuse a gamble with a 50% chance of winning $100 and a 50% chance of losing as little as $10, which suggests they weighted losses about 10 times more heavily than gains,” says the report.
And that kind of aversion can have a dramatic effect on what they do with money after they retire…say, when they are faced with the choice of taking a lump sum distribution of money or annuitizing. Johnson says that handing over the money to an insurance company can seem like “losing” the money, and because the psychological effect is double, handing over $250,000 can seem like handing over half a million, he says.
Investors might also not realize that they’re thinking in terms of nominal dollars not real dollars. Professor Jeffrey Brown of the University of Illinois found that an investment spurned by retirees when framed one way might be embraced when it is framed another way. He took a $100,000 savings account with 4% interest and put that in front of 1,300 people older than 50, asking them if they preferred that to a life annuity paying $650 a month. The two choices were actually designed to have the same actuarial value. But only 21% liked it when it was positioned as an investment, whereas 70% preferred it when it was positioned as a monthly income stream, not an investment. The investment moniker had more risk associated with it.
Such behavior has come under greater scrutiny as investors continue to reel from the financial crisis. People tend to take a rear-view mirror view to the choices they make, says the report.
“I find a very strong negative relationship between a bad stock market return and annuitization,” said Alessandro Previtero, a fellow at the Anderson School of Management at UCLA, at the press meeting. “After a negative trend in the stock market, individuals are more likely to take an annuity. After a positive time, they are more likely to take the lump sum.”
“People make long-term binding financial decisions based on the last six months of the stock market,” echoed Shlomo Benartzi, a professor and co-chair of the behavioral decision-making group at UCLA. Benartzi said that the behavioral finance element of an advisor’s work will become more important as investors become more responsible for their own decision-making in the defined contribution era.
“What we’re trying to do is take behavioral finance and apply it not just to the accumulation phase, but to the de-accumulation phase.”
Among other items in the report is a checklist for advisors to ask themselves and clients. Among the questions are, “Is the retirement income strategy framed in terms of the monthly income a retiree will receive?” and “Are the implications of today’s financial decisions vividly presented so employees see how their lives will be affected?” The report also looks at the problems of cognitive impairment as people age, with a special regard for impaired math skills in people’s later years.
ZDT author’s note:
Notice in the very first paragraph that they pinpoint process over gut feelings. It is becoming more and more distinct that when dealing with money or financial decisions an objective trackable process is more preferable than if the decision is emotionally driven (like getting married). Again, when this entire subject of decision making is closely examined, the sharp dividing line becomes factual process or emotional feeling.
Example: When it comes to retirement or any long-term savings goal, the impact and fact of inflation becomes a critical consideration. The cumulative effect of compounding…at even low rates of inflation can multiply any figures exponentially. An inflation rate of just 3% compounded over 10 years can erode purchasing power by 25%. Compounded over 20 years, a 3% inflation rate can reduce purchasing power by nearly 50%. These are indisputable facts and should have a firm place in the process of retirement planning decisions. The opposite: “I feel like I need to buy me some gold.”
Monday, May 24, 2010
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Re-posted with permission By: Sean Earley
http://www.seanearley.com/decisions-decisions-decisions/
When was the last time you made a decision?
No, I’m not talking about basic, everyday crap like to get out of bed, to mow the lawn, to go get a coffee or to get off the toilet or whatever… I mean a real decision? Maybe even a “life changing” decision?
The dictionary defines the word decision as:
- a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration
- a formal judgment
It comes from the Latin word decidere: de – ‘off’ + caedere – ‘ to cut.’
This means that a decision is the final word, a commitment. It’s a done deal and there is no turning back. A declaration of the imminent. An “it will be because I say it will be and I want it more than anything and there will be no other alternative” declaration.
It kind of brings the word into a whole new perspective doesn’t it? So again, when was the last time you made one? Have you ever really made one? Or do you just let things get decided for you?
I bet you’ve made some bad decisions? Sure, we’ve all made plenty of those, but what about an intentional good decision?
Are there things in your life that you would like to change? Maybe you want to quit smoking or drinking or doing drugs, or lose weight or better your financial situation? Maybe you want to become more involved with the community, or plant a tree or better your relationship with a loved one, or quit wasting your life away in front of the TV, or learn something new or to help out another person in need? Maybe to just be a better person, whatever that means to you? Well, these things require decisions.
Everyone has things they would “like to” do or to change in their lives, but so many of us ultimately don’t change them because we don’t put forth the effort to make a decision to change them. It’s not that we can’t, it’s just that we don’t. Or maybe we really just don’t want to.
Change doesn’t happen with just thoughts or good intentions. Change means that you make a decision and hold to your convictions. Not a maybe…A decision…Period.
I would like to propose that today, you make a decision that will positively effect your life for the better. A good decision…A life changing decision…A brave decision.
It could be large or small, but regardless of what it is, just make a decision and stick to it. After all, if you don’t stick to it, its not really a decision after all, is it?
Better yet, why stop there? I think that once you finally do make “that” decision (and you all know which one I’m talking about, because everyone has some sort of “that” decision to make in some shape or form) I think you’ll start to find that you will be making even more decisions. Imagine that? Being more decisive? Wouldn’t that be a great decision?
I would even propose you make a public declaration of your decision, either out loud to your friends or family, or via your social network of choice. Hell, why not just spray paint it on your garage door? What better way to secure the outcome of your decision than to be held publicly accountable if you fail to follow through? Just a little motivator. An insurance policy towards something better.
Lets make today, May 21th, a day of global decision making. Decisions to better our lives no matter how small and hold ourselves accountable for them. What do you have to lose? Accept for maybe something that would change your life?
Speaking of decisions, today in 1927, Charles Lindbergh landed in Europe after he made the decision to climb into a tin can full of fuel and began what was to be the world’s first solo non-stop flight across the Atlantic Ocean. That was a life changing decision.
How did he do it and end up making history? I don’t know… he just decided to I guess.
Feel free to post your decisions as a comment on my blog if you’d like.
I’ll look forward to hearing from you.
Share and Enjoy:
Sean Earley
ZDT author’s note:
For our blog that is dedicated to objective decision making, this is an excellent post that parallels many of the positions of ZDT. We are sending a complimentary copy of the book Zillion Dollar Thinking to Sean for his efforts…and thanks a zillion.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Zillion Dollar Thought
During its lifetime an oyster changes its sex from male to female and back several times….So, one decides to go out on a date with a she, and comes home with a he? Yikes.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Life and Death Decision Making
Continued from the Previous Post
May Newsletter Re-Posted by Permission
By: Vincent Dunn Deputy Chief FDNY (ret)
Multiple Officers Response.
The same learning repeats itself in the officer rank. At an alarm for a fire and emergency, several units are dispatched to the scene. Each unit has an officer as a supervisor, who is usually a lieutenant. The first company officer arriving at the scene is in command until relieved by a higher-ranking officer. During the incident, the supervisors give orders and oversee the company's operations but also as apprentice fire officers we watch the senior officers make decisions. We watch the good ones. We watch and learn life-and-death decision-making of a veteran first-line supervisor. In addition, at least one captain responds on every working fire; in New York City, the captain groups are permanent. A captain cannot change groups. The groups are spread out so one captain responds on every working fire alarm of three engines and two ladders. This permanent group assignment insures that one experienced company officer, a captain, will be at every working fire.
Two Chiefs at a Fire.
When we are promoted to chief officers, the process starts all over again. We learn new life-and-death decisions. We learn life-and-death firefighting strategies that affect the people trapped in burning buildings and the nearby buildings. And most important we learn that the safety of all the firefighters at the scene of the fire or emergency is our responsibility, not just the safety of one company. The fireground commander responding with the first alarm is the person who makes the most life-and death decisions. The life-and-death decisions made in the first few minutes of the fire are the most important. These decisions lay the groundwork for the entire firefighting operation. To insure proper life-and-death fireground decisions by fire chiefs, New York City has two chiefs respond to every working fire. One battalion chief responds on the initial alarm for a structure fire; if it becomes an all-hands fire, a second battalion chief responds but the first arriving chief is in charge. With two chiefs at the scene, chances are good that one of the two battalion chiefs will have several years of experience. The chief, even if in charge, may call on the expertise of the veteran. In addition, a deputy chief arrives on the second alarm.
High Activity Assignment.
Since experience is the best teacher of decision-makers, many fire officers and chiefs seek assignments in areas where fire and emergency activity is the greatest. Assignments to areas of high fire activity are highly sought after by new chiefs wanting to gain that valuable experience in life-and death decision-making. Experience also builds confidence in our ability to make correct decisions. This confidence translates into leadership traits and a command presence at fires. Chief and company officers also seek decision-making experiences in different types of emergency situations. Just as a soldier must know about desert warfare, jungle warfare and urban warfare, a fire chief must know about high-rise firefighting, low-rise firefighting, strip-store firefighting, private-dwelling firefighting and wildfire firefighting. Some fire departments rotate chief officers automatically after five years in a unit.
Further details are explained under each of these headings:
Simulation Training.
Knowledge of Battlefield.
Knowledge of Enemy.
Knowledge of Strategy and Tactics.
They can be found at this site:
http://vincentdunn.com/dunn/newsletters/may/FDNYHP_13.html
In conclusion:
Controls on Decision Makers.
The fire service controls and supervises the life-and death decisions made by a company officer and a fire chief. All critical decisions are monitored. The purpose of this oversight is to help the new fire chief learn decision-making and to prevent a serious error. Radio progress reports of fire conditions and actions taken are a control. These reports require the chief in charge to evaluate the results of his actions. It also allows a higher-ranking, more-experienced chief to monitor and control the actions of a new fireground commander. If radio reports indicate problems or that the fire or emergency is not being controlled, a supervisor may respond and take control. Another control occurs when greater alarms are transmitted. Calling for additional resources automatically triggers the response of a higher-ranking, more experienced chief. Standard operating procedures carried out at all structure fires act as a control on life-and-death decision making. Before leaving the scene of a major-alarm fire, the fire chief is responsible for three critical life-and death decisions:
1. Primary search.
2. The secondary search.
3. The decision to declare the fire under control.
Lessons learned.
We learn life-and-death decision making in the fire service the same way we learn any skill. We learn it by study and by doing it. First we are apprentices. We study, watch others and learn. Next, we become journeymen. That means that after years of study, we know how to make decisions but we lack experience. Finally, after several years, if we make good decisions and have no disasters, we may become masters of our profession.
Author’s note:
I pray that I will never need their services, yet I am thankful they are "life committed" and they have this level of training in decision making.
May Newsletter Re-Posted by Permission
By: Vincent Dunn Deputy Chief FDNY (ret)
Multiple Officers Response.
The same learning repeats itself in the officer rank. At an alarm for a fire and emergency, several units are dispatched to the scene. Each unit has an officer as a supervisor, who is usually a lieutenant. The first company officer arriving at the scene is in command until relieved by a higher-ranking officer. During the incident, the supervisors give orders and oversee the company's operations but also as apprentice fire officers we watch the senior officers make decisions. We watch the good ones. We watch and learn life-and-death decision-making of a veteran first-line supervisor. In addition, at least one captain responds on every working fire; in New York City, the captain groups are permanent. A captain cannot change groups. The groups are spread out so one captain responds on every working fire alarm of three engines and two ladders. This permanent group assignment insures that one experienced company officer, a captain, will be at every working fire.
Two Chiefs at a Fire.
When we are promoted to chief officers, the process starts all over again. We learn new life-and-death decisions. We learn life-and-death firefighting strategies that affect the people trapped in burning buildings and the nearby buildings. And most important we learn that the safety of all the firefighters at the scene of the fire or emergency is our responsibility, not just the safety of one company. The fireground commander responding with the first alarm is the person who makes the most life-and death decisions. The life-and-death decisions made in the first few minutes of the fire are the most important. These decisions lay the groundwork for the entire firefighting operation. To insure proper life-and-death fireground decisions by fire chiefs, New York City has two chiefs respond to every working fire. One battalion chief responds on the initial alarm for a structure fire; if it becomes an all-hands fire, a second battalion chief responds but the first arriving chief is in charge. With two chiefs at the scene, chances are good that one of the two battalion chiefs will have several years of experience. The chief, even if in charge, may call on the expertise of the veteran. In addition, a deputy chief arrives on the second alarm.
High Activity Assignment.
Since experience is the best teacher of decision-makers, many fire officers and chiefs seek assignments in areas where fire and emergency activity is the greatest. Assignments to areas of high fire activity are highly sought after by new chiefs wanting to gain that valuable experience in life-and death decision-making. Experience also builds confidence in our ability to make correct decisions. This confidence translates into leadership traits and a command presence at fires. Chief and company officers also seek decision-making experiences in different types of emergency situations. Just as a soldier must know about desert warfare, jungle warfare and urban warfare, a fire chief must know about high-rise firefighting, low-rise firefighting, strip-store firefighting, private-dwelling firefighting and wildfire firefighting. Some fire departments rotate chief officers automatically after five years in a unit.
Further details are explained under each of these headings:
Simulation Training.
Knowledge of Battlefield.
Knowledge of Enemy.
Knowledge of Strategy and Tactics.
They can be found at this site:
http://vincentdunn.com/dunn/newsletters/may/FDNYHP_13.html
In conclusion:
Controls on Decision Makers.
The fire service controls and supervises the life-and death decisions made by a company officer and a fire chief. All critical decisions are monitored. The purpose of this oversight is to help the new fire chief learn decision-making and to prevent a serious error. Radio progress reports of fire conditions and actions taken are a control. These reports require the chief in charge to evaluate the results of his actions. It also allows a higher-ranking, more-experienced chief to monitor and control the actions of a new fireground commander. If radio reports indicate problems or that the fire or emergency is not being controlled, a supervisor may respond and take control. Another control occurs when greater alarms are transmitted. Calling for additional resources automatically triggers the response of a higher-ranking, more experienced chief. Standard operating procedures carried out at all structure fires act as a control on life-and-death decision making. Before leaving the scene of a major-alarm fire, the fire chief is responsible for three critical life-and death decisions:
1. Primary search.
2. The secondary search.
3. The decision to declare the fire under control.
Lessons learned.
We learn life-and-death decision making in the fire service the same way we learn any skill. We learn it by study and by doing it. First we are apprentices. We study, watch others and learn. Next, we become journeymen. That means that after years of study, we know how to make decisions but we lack experience. Finally, after several years, if we make good decisions and have no disasters, we may become masters of our profession.
Author’s note:
I pray that I will never need their services, yet I am thankful they are "life committed" and they have this level of training in decision making.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Life and Death Decision Making
May Newsletter Re-Posted by Permission
By: Vincent Dunn Deputy Chief FDNY (ret)
Author’s note:
I can think of no better example of critical decision making than what our firefighters live out each and every day. Please consider their constant commitments:
The U.S. Marine Corps called several New York City fire chiefs to its military academy to find out how the fire service makes life-and-death decisions. The Marines believe we make frequent and good life-and-death decisions during fires and emergencies, and they wanted to know how we train our fire officers in decision-making.
During a war, the military makes many life-and-death decisions. But when the war ends, so does that degree of decision-making. The fire service makes life-and-death decisions in a war that never ends…firefighting. Many soldiers who made life-and-death decisions in the military have retired. The fire service does not have this dilemma. We continually maintain a corps of fire chiefs, officers and firefighters who learn and know how to make life-and-death decisions. And, the fire service continues to make life-and death decisions every day throughout this country at fires and emergencies.
The marines wanted to know how we acquire the ability to make life-and-death decisions. We fire chiefs gave them some valuable information. First and foremost, we teach firefighters, officers and chiefs those decisions they make affect their own lives and the lives of the people they serve in the community. Next, the fire service identifies the common life-and-death situations encountered at fires and emergencies. These critical situations get special attention during training sessions.
For example:
1. Is the roof stable? Can I cut a roof vent opening or will it collapse?
2. Which one of the injured victims should be removed from the burning
building first?
3. Will the burning car explode or should I attempt to rescue the trapped
victims?
4. Should the firefighters be withdrawn from the burning building or should
I continue the high-risk interior attack?
5. Is the secondary search in the smoke-filled apartment complete or are
there still trapped victims?
6. Do I have sufficient resources at the scene or should I call for
reinforcements?
7. Is the smoldering fire inside the concealed space extinguished or will it
rekindle and a larger, life-threatening blaze occur after I leave the scene?
8. Is this a false alarm or should I search the area again for a fire or
victim?
9. Do I have enough resources at the scene to attack the fire or should I
order all firefighters to do search and rescue and let the building bum?
10. Should I give up the original burning building and protect adjoining
structures with hose lines?
The above are just some of the life-and-death decisions chiefs and company officers make during fires and emergencies every day throughout America. And the following are ways in which fire chiefs and company officers in the New York City Fire Department learn how to make these decisions.
Mentors.
Like soldiers, fire chiefs, company officers and firefighters learn how to make life-and-death decisions through experience. We learn the craft of firefighting by doing it. . Experience is the best teacher, even for decision making. Watching or assisting someone making a decision is invaluable. It starts as firefighters. We have the "buddy system" of working in pairs. A junior firefighter is assigned to work with a seasoned firefighter. The young firefighter watches as the veteran performs the work. He asks questions of the senior firefighter and learns techniques and practices of life-and-death decision making that will save his life someday.
Then, one day on a tour of duty in the firehouse, the senior firefighter is not there. He takes a day off, is promoted or transferred and now the junior firefighter becomes the senior firefighters then he is assigned a rookie to work with. He becomes mentor to this inexperienced firefighter and teaches the same life-and death decision-making.
(To Be Continued)…
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
The Big Decision Divide
Because of the sheer volume, one could get surfomania on the subject and techniques of decision making, but at the end, you would probably come to the same conclusion that we did. The universe of this subject is divided about right down the middle, either…to adopt a process or model…or, use no process or model. People seem to swear by one or the other. The only real gauge to the effectiveness of your choice is…your result.
In your research, you will also find some resourceful individuals and organizations who have dedicated their life’s work to this subject. Some of them are actually able to influence us and seriously challenge our positions. Here is one such example:
“I [Norman W. Edmund] was the founder and former CEO of Edmund Scientific Co. in Barrington, NJ for 33 years before beginning my second career as an educational researcher. From this first career I gained practical, real world experience in a wide variety of problem solving and decision making.
In my second career as an education researcher, I have specialized and spent full time for 20 years on problem solving and decision making via the scientific method and on the need to include it more adequately in education. The body of knowledge about problem solving is huge and complex. However, I have tried hard to extract the basic principles of the foundation of problem solving. I acknowledge my indebtedness to our academic community and others who helped accumulated this knowledge. I certify without any legal obligation that my website contains reliable knowledge on problem solving. I also certify that the SM-14 model formula (process) for the steps or stages and ingredients of problem solving presented here is the best ever offered.
However, while I like to believe that I am an expert in my area of specialization, there are many features of problem solving that have been made a science or little science. I am not an expert on all of these; I may cover many of them lightly but not in detail. A few examples of these are artificial intelligence, modeling, mathematical problem solving, problem solving games and puzzles, cognitive behavioral psychology, etc.
To promote the use and teaching of the scientific method of problem solving and decision making and to improve good judgment, I proclaim my writing here to be in the public domain. Please link your site to this one to improve the nation's research problem solving, decision making, and good judgment. This will help prevent unnecessary wars, economic bubbles, and other major decision making errors in business, politics, society, and personal lives.”
For more information, contact nwe@scientificmethod.com.
http://problemsolving.net/
Author’s note:
Now that is dedication. And, we would definitely have to classify him on the model and process side of the equation. Stay tuned for more examples to follow.
In your research, you will also find some resourceful individuals and organizations who have dedicated their life’s work to this subject. Some of them are actually able to influence us and seriously challenge our positions. Here is one such example:
“I [Norman W. Edmund] was the founder and former CEO of Edmund Scientific Co. in Barrington, NJ for 33 years before beginning my second career as an educational researcher. From this first career I gained practical, real world experience in a wide variety of problem solving and decision making.
In my second career as an education researcher, I have specialized and spent full time for 20 years on problem solving and decision making via the scientific method and on the need to include it more adequately in education. The body of knowledge about problem solving is huge and complex. However, I have tried hard to extract the basic principles of the foundation of problem solving. I acknowledge my indebtedness to our academic community and others who helped accumulated this knowledge. I certify without any legal obligation that my website contains reliable knowledge on problem solving. I also certify that the SM-14 model formula (process) for the steps or stages and ingredients of problem solving presented here is the best ever offered.
"Defective problem solving is the cause of all the disorders in the world."
To promote the use and teaching of the scientific method of problem solving and decision making and to improve good judgment, I proclaim my writing here to be in the public domain. Please link your site to this one to improve the nation's research problem solving, decision making, and good judgment. This will help prevent unnecessary wars, economic bubbles, and other major decision making errors in business, politics, society, and personal lives.”
For more information, contact nwe@scientificmethod.com.
http://problemsolving.net/
Author’s note:
Now that is dedication. And, we would definitely have to classify him on the model and process side of the equation. Stay tuned for more examples to follow.
Friday, May 14, 2010
In the MODEL System , can the original words be substituted when making various decisions?
The four primary words that fill each step of the MODELTM System are: (1) Opportunity, (2) Commitment, (3) Solution and (4) Action.
Each of these words has a meaning as all words do. We’ve been asked if any of these original words can be substituted. And again, the answer is simply…yes but, on the condition that the original meaning is not changed.
To help you out with possible substitutions, here are a number of synonyms for each word:
OPPORTUNITY: Problem; Issue; Challenge; Objective; Circumstance; Event; Chance; Occasion; Opening; Possibility; Event; Situation; Alternative; Decision; Election; Incident; Predicament; Moment; Start; Government; Etc.
COMMITMENT: Obligation; Contract; Agreement; Duty; Guarantee; Must; Need; Pledge; Vow; Warranty; Resolution; Consideration; Charge; Duty; Responsibility; Trust; Covenant; Desire; Etc.
SOLUTION: Consequence; Clarification; Fix; Result; Compound; Blend; Project; Conclusion; Resolution; Decision; Recommendation; Outcome; Determination; Proposition; Proposal; package; Notion; Answer; Creation; Plan; Etc.
ACTION: Closure; Activity; Alert; Business; Motion; Movement; Haste; Response; Work; Spirit; Going; Accomplishment; Execution; Exercise; Fight; Run; Purchase; Etc.
The definition of a synonym is: “a substitute word with the same meaning as the original word.”
The idea here is to demonstrate the fact that the MODELTM System and it’s basic process can transcend the single original descriptive words. But, the MODELTM System elements of the acute triangle, the order, the agreements, time requirements, timing, and delivery is not interchangeable…these elements are the heart and soul of the mechanics of the MODELTM System and should not be altered.
But, to further prove the flexibility of the MODELTM System; as long as the definitions and meanings remain the same…the original words can be interchanged.
Please email me (see the author page) with the code word “zillions” and I will send you a copy of the MODELTM System.
Each of these words has a meaning as all words do. We’ve been asked if any of these original words can be substituted. And again, the answer is simply…yes but, on the condition that the original meaning is not changed.
To help you out with possible substitutions, here are a number of synonyms for each word:
OPPORTUNITY: Problem; Issue; Challenge; Objective; Circumstance; Event; Chance; Occasion; Opening; Possibility; Event; Situation; Alternative; Decision; Election; Incident; Predicament; Moment; Start; Government; Etc.
COMMITMENT: Obligation; Contract; Agreement; Duty; Guarantee; Must; Need; Pledge; Vow; Warranty; Resolution; Consideration; Charge; Duty; Responsibility; Trust; Covenant; Desire; Etc.
SOLUTION: Consequence; Clarification; Fix; Result; Compound; Blend; Project; Conclusion; Resolution; Decision; Recommendation; Outcome; Determination; Proposition; Proposal; package; Notion; Answer; Creation; Plan; Etc.
ACTION: Closure; Activity; Alert; Business; Motion; Movement; Haste; Response; Work; Spirit; Going; Accomplishment; Execution; Exercise; Fight; Run; Purchase; Etc.
The definition of a synonym is: “a substitute word with the same meaning as the original word.”
The idea here is to demonstrate the fact that the MODELTM System and it’s basic process can transcend the single original descriptive words. But, the MODELTM System elements of the acute triangle, the order, the agreements, time requirements, timing, and delivery is not interchangeable…these elements are the heart and soul of the mechanics of the MODELTM System and should not be altered.
But, to further prove the flexibility of the MODELTM System; as long as the definitions and meanings remain the same…the original words can be interchanged.
Please email me (see the author page) with the code word “zillions” and I will send you a copy of the MODELTM System.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
If there is No Commitment in the Decision…
Please consider what confidence (or lack of confidence) you would place in just one industry category if these skills and requirements were not part of the training, execution and commitment.
Emergency Medical Technician (EMT)
Education and training:
A high school diploma is usually required to enter a formal emergency medical technician training program. Training is offered at progressive levels: EMT-Basic, EMT-Intermediate, and Paramedic.
At the EMT-Basic level, coursework emphasizes emergency skills, such as managing respiratory, trauma, and cardiac emergencies, and patient assessment. Formal courses are often combined with time in an emergency department and/or ambulance. The program provides instruction and practice in dealing with bleeding, breaks and fractures, airway obstruction, cardiac arrest, and emergency childbirth to name a few.
Students learn how to use and maintain common emergency equipment, such as backboards, suction devices, splints, oxygen delivery systems, and stretchers. Graduates of approved EMT-Basic training programs must pass a written and practical examination administered by the State licensing agency or the NREMT.
At the EMT-Intermediate level, training requirements vary by State. The nationally defined levels, EMT-Intermediate 1985 and EMT-Intermediate 1999, typically require 30 to 350 hours of training based on scope of practice. Students learn advanced skills such the use of advanced airway devices, intravenous fluids, and some medications.
The most advanced level of training for this occupation is Paramedic. At this level, the caregiver receives training in anatomy and physiology as well as advanced medical skills. Most commonly, the training is conducted in community colleges and technical schools and may result in an associate's degree.
These programs may take up to one to two years. Such education prepares the graduate to take the NREMT examination to become certified as a Paramedic. Extensive related coursework and clinical and field experience is required. Refresher courses and continuing education are available for EMTs and paramedics at all levels. Work environment. EMTs and paramedics work both indoors and out, in all types of weather and traumatic conditions.
They are required to do strenuous kneeling, bending, and heavy lifting. These workers are at a higher risk for contracting illnesses or experiencing injuries on the job than workers in other occupations. They risk noise-induced hearing loss from sirens and back injuries from lifting patients, equipment and debris.
In addition, EMTs and Paramedics may be exposed to communicable diseases, such as hepatitis-B and AIDS, as well as to violence from mentally unstable or combative patients. The work is not only physically strenuous but is highly stressful, many times involving life-or-death situations and traumatized patients.
Nonetheless, many people find the work exciting and challenging and embrace the opportunity to help others. These workers experienced a larger than average number of work-related injuries or illnesses themselves.
Many EMTs and paramedics are required to work more than 40 hours a week. Because emergency services function 24 hours a day, EMTs and Paramedics have irregular and erratic working hours. The pay is not necessarily high in relation to the heavy requirements and exposure. In all, these positions demand serious commitments at several levels.
Here’s the deal…if you were in a serious car accident, laying on the ground totally helpless with multiple injuries until these specialists arrived at the scene…how important would their prior and current commitments be to your survival?
We so often overlook the role that commitment plays in critical decision making (as in this career decision). If you are now using a model or formula for deciding that does not include the commitment step, please re-consider (Step-Two of the MODELTM).
Emergency Medical Technician (EMT)
Education and training:
A high school diploma is usually required to enter a formal emergency medical technician training program. Training is offered at progressive levels: EMT-Basic, EMT-Intermediate, and Paramedic.
At the EMT-Basic level, coursework emphasizes emergency skills, such as managing respiratory, trauma, and cardiac emergencies, and patient assessment. Formal courses are often combined with time in an emergency department and/or ambulance. The program provides instruction and practice in dealing with bleeding, breaks and fractures, airway obstruction, cardiac arrest, and emergency childbirth to name a few.
Students learn how to use and maintain common emergency equipment, such as backboards, suction devices, splints, oxygen delivery systems, and stretchers. Graduates of approved EMT-Basic training programs must pass a written and practical examination administered by the State licensing agency or the NREMT.
At the EMT-Intermediate level, training requirements vary by State. The nationally defined levels, EMT-Intermediate 1985 and EMT-Intermediate 1999, typically require 30 to 350 hours of training based on scope of practice. Students learn advanced skills such the use of advanced airway devices, intravenous fluids, and some medications.
The most advanced level of training for this occupation is Paramedic. At this level, the caregiver receives training in anatomy and physiology as well as advanced medical skills. Most commonly, the training is conducted in community colleges and technical schools and may result in an associate's degree.
These programs may take up to one to two years. Such education prepares the graduate to take the NREMT examination to become certified as a Paramedic. Extensive related coursework and clinical and field experience is required. Refresher courses and continuing education are available for EMTs and paramedics at all levels. Work environment. EMTs and paramedics work both indoors and out, in all types of weather and traumatic conditions.
They are required to do strenuous kneeling, bending, and heavy lifting. These workers are at a higher risk for contracting illnesses or experiencing injuries on the job than workers in other occupations. They risk noise-induced hearing loss from sirens and back injuries from lifting patients, equipment and debris.
In addition, EMTs and Paramedics may be exposed to communicable diseases, such as hepatitis-B and AIDS, as well as to violence from mentally unstable or combative patients. The work is not only physically strenuous but is highly stressful, many times involving life-or-death situations and traumatized patients.
Nonetheless, many people find the work exciting and challenging and embrace the opportunity to help others. These workers experienced a larger than average number of work-related injuries or illnesses themselves.
Many EMTs and paramedics are required to work more than 40 hours a week. Because emergency services function 24 hours a day, EMTs and Paramedics have irregular and erratic working hours. The pay is not necessarily high in relation to the heavy requirements and exposure. In all, these positions demand serious commitments at several levels.
Here’s the deal…if you were in a serious car accident, laying on the ground totally helpless with multiple injuries until these specialists arrived at the scene…how important would their prior and current commitments be to your survival?
We so often overlook the role that commitment plays in critical decision making (as in this career decision). If you are now using a model or formula for deciding that does not include the commitment step, please re-consider (Step-Two of the MODELTM).
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Zillion Dollar Quotes
Measuring the results of a decision against its expectations shows executives what their strengths are, where they need to improve, and where they lack knowledge, plans or information.
Peter Drucker
Sometimes you make the right decision;
sometimes you make the decision right.
Dr. Phil
I have made the tough decisions, always with an eye toward the bottom line. Perhaps it's time America was run like a business.
Donald Trump
Decide what you want, decide what you are willing to exchange for it…Then, establish your priorities and go to work.”
H. L. Hunt
“Quick decisions are unsafe decisions.”
Sophocles
The more decisions that you are forced to make alone, the more you are aware of your freedom to choose.
Thornton Wilder
“Your decision to be, to have and do something out of ordinary entails facing difficulties that are out of the ordinary as well. Sometimes your greatest asset is simply your decision to stay with it longer than anyone else.”
Brian Tracy
"We all have freedom of choice, but you will never have freedom of consequences."
Decide wisely.
What you do (decide) speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
“True freedom is the opportunity to make decisions...and to be able to act on them”
Peter Drucker
Sometimes you make the right decision;
sometimes you make the decision right.
Dr. Phil
I have made the tough decisions, always with an eye toward the bottom line. Perhaps it's time America was run like a business.
Donald Trump
Decide what you want, decide what you are willing to exchange for it…Then, establish your priorities and go to work.”
H. L. Hunt
“Quick decisions are unsafe decisions.”
Sophocles
The more decisions that you are forced to make alone, the more you are aware of your freedom to choose.
Thornton Wilder
“Your decision to be, to have and do something out of ordinary entails facing difficulties that are out of the ordinary as well. Sometimes your greatest asset is simply your decision to stay with it longer than anyone else.”
Brian Tracy
"We all have freedom of choice, but you will never have freedom of consequences."
Decide wisely.
What you do (decide) speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
“True freedom is the opportunity to make decisions...and to be able to act on them”
Monday, May 10, 2010
Deciding Factors
Excerpt by: Anni Layne Rodgers
December 19, 2007
Today, government officials face uncertainty when making decisions involving America's military tactics, domestic policies, and economic problems. And beyond the beltway, business leaders encounter more questions than answers as they struggle to maintain or capture profitability in the midst of mounting unemployment, wavering consumer confidence, and volatile markets. In short, nothing is certain anymore.
"Gone are the days when you could eliminate uncertainty or wait to gather enough information to reduce uncertainty to negligible levels," says J. Edward Russo, coauthor of the book: Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time (Doubleday/Currency, December 2001). "If you wait, someone will eat your lunch. Leaders today have got to respond adaptively as the world around them grows more complex and ambiguous."
History provides little strategic guidance, because no nation has ever faced this complex set of circumstances before. The decisions facing the White House are colossal, and the stakes could not be higher. At home, how do you keep American citizens alert to terrorist hazards, yet avoid widespread anxiety? How do you retain popular support when reporting even the smallest military victory may jeopardize troops' safety and success in Afghanistan? Abroad, how do you destroy Al Qaeda and its supporters while keeping innocent civilians safe? How do you unite an international coalition of allies without becoming entangled in long-standing political battles?
When the decision-making environment changes so too must the processes for investigation, evaluation, and action. That is why, during this period of unrelenting doubt and danger, leaders must rethink their decision-making techniques, says Russo, professor of marketing and behavior science at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. He offers strategies for making smart decisions in an age of unknown threats and uncertain results. The only thing he's sure of: It won't hurt to try…
Full article: http://www.fastcompany.com/articles/archive/win_decision.html
This article is one of many that is targeting the fact that decision making techniques and processes are vital. This one particularly sites investigation (step #one: due diligence), evaluation (step# three: solution) and action (step#4: action). They left out (step #3: commitment), but three out of four (the four steps of the MODELTM) is not bad.
Point is that a simple and reliable process gets more important as the weight of the decision gets heavier. If you would like a copy of the MODELTM process, please email the author and use the keyword: "zillions."
December 19, 2007
Today, government officials face uncertainty when making decisions involving America's military tactics, domestic policies, and economic problems. And beyond the beltway, business leaders encounter more questions than answers as they struggle to maintain or capture profitability in the midst of mounting unemployment, wavering consumer confidence, and volatile markets. In short, nothing is certain anymore.
"Gone are the days when you could eliminate uncertainty or wait to gather enough information to reduce uncertainty to negligible levels," says J. Edward Russo, coauthor of the book: Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time (Doubleday/Currency, December 2001). "If you wait, someone will eat your lunch. Leaders today have got to respond adaptively as the world around them grows more complex and ambiguous."
History provides little strategic guidance, because no nation has ever faced this complex set of circumstances before. The decisions facing the White House are colossal, and the stakes could not be higher. At home, how do you keep American citizens alert to terrorist hazards, yet avoid widespread anxiety? How do you retain popular support when reporting even the smallest military victory may jeopardize troops' safety and success in Afghanistan? Abroad, how do you destroy Al Qaeda and its supporters while keeping innocent civilians safe? How do you unite an international coalition of allies without becoming entangled in long-standing political battles?
When the decision-making environment changes so too must the processes for investigation, evaluation, and action. That is why, during this period of unrelenting doubt and danger, leaders must rethink their decision-making techniques, says Russo, professor of marketing and behavior science at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. He offers strategies for making smart decisions in an age of unknown threats and uncertain results. The only thing he's sure of: It won't hurt to try…
Full article: http://www.fastcompany.com/articles/archive/win_decision.html
This article is one of many that is targeting the fact that decision making techniques and processes are vital. This one particularly sites investigation (step #one: due diligence), evaluation (step# three: solution) and action (step#4: action). They left out (step #3: commitment), but three out of four (the four steps of the MODELTM) is not bad.
Point is that a simple and reliable process gets more important as the weight of the decision gets heavier. If you would like a copy of the MODELTM process, please email the author and use the keyword: "zillions."
Friday, May 7, 2010
Decision: M&Ms
Executives: John and Forrest Mars, the owners of Mars Inc., makers of M&M’s
Background: In 1981, Universal Studios called Mars and asked for permission to use M&M’s in a new film they were making. This was (and is) a fairly common practice. Product placement deals provide filmmakers with some extra cash or promotion opportunities. In this case, the director was looking for a cross-promotion. He’d use the M&M’s, and Mars could help promote the movie.
Decision: The Mars brothers said "No."
Impact: The film was E.T...The Extra-Terrestrial, directed by Stephen Spielberg. The M&M’s were needed for a crucial scene: Eliott, the little boy who befriended the alien, uses candies to lure E.T. into his house.
Instead, Universal Studios went to Hershey’s and cut a deal to use a new product called Reese’s Pieces. Initial sales of Reese’s Pieces had been light. But when E.T. became a top-grossing film – generating tremendous publicity for "E.T.’s favorite candy" – sales exploded. They tripled within two weeks and continued climbing for months afterward. "It was the biggest marketing coup in history," says Jack Dowd, the Hershey’s executive who approved the movie tie-in. "We got immediate recognition for our product. We would normally have to pay 15 or 20 million bucks for it."
Considering the M&M volume...
maybe zillions.
Background: In 1981, Universal Studios called Mars and asked for permission to use M&M’s in a new film they were making. This was (and is) a fairly common practice. Product placement deals provide filmmakers with some extra cash or promotion opportunities. In this case, the director was looking for a cross-promotion. He’d use the M&M’s, and Mars could help promote the movie.
Decision: The Mars brothers said "No."
Impact: The film was E.T...The Extra-Terrestrial, directed by Stephen Spielberg. The M&M’s were needed for a crucial scene: Eliott, the little boy who befriended the alien, uses candies to lure E.T. into his house.
Instead, Universal Studios went to Hershey’s and cut a deal to use a new product called Reese’s Pieces. Initial sales of Reese’s Pieces had been light. But when E.T. became a top-grossing film – generating tremendous publicity for "E.T.’s favorite candy" – sales exploded. They tripled within two weeks and continued climbing for months afterward. "It was the biggest marketing coup in history," says Jack Dowd, the Hershey’s executive who approved the movie tie-in. "We got immediate recognition for our product. We would normally have to pay 15 or 20 million bucks for it."
Considering the M&M volume...
maybe zillions.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Decision as the Key to Transformation
He further stated that indecision explains why many people feel that they have a life purpose, but have no idea what it is.
Decision is the key to transformation. It is one of the key character traits distinguishing high performers from the vast ranks of the mediocre. He goes on to say that sound decision making is, by definition, behind every truly great achievement anyone ever makes.
Interestingly he said, the most successful people make decisions quickly and change them slowly. They persist with the decisions they have made. However, failures are very slow to make any decision at all (most never make any), and they change the ones they have made very rapidly indeed because they are so uncertain of their choices.
Think and Grow Rich was first published in 1937 around the great depression and has sold about 30,000,000 copies over the last 70 years. Subject: Thinking, Decisions, Wealth, Success
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
One in Four Will Need Decisions Made for Them
By STEPHANIE NANO A/P March. 31, 2010
NEW YORK - A significant number of the elderly — more than one in four — will eventually need someone to make end-of-life decisions about their medical care, a new study suggests. The results illustrate the value of people making their wishes known in a living will and designating someone to make treatment decisions for them, the researchers said.
In the study, those who spelled out their preferences in living wills usually got the treatment they wanted. Only a few wanted heroic measures to prolong their lives. The researchers said it's the first accounting of how many of the elderly really end up needing medical decisions made for them.
Last year, end-of-life care became embroiled in the health care reform debate. A provision in the legislation would have allowed Medicare to pay doctors for counseling patients about end-of-life issues like living wills. The study is in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine.
The researchers concluded that advance directives — living wills and health proxies chosen to make end-of-life decisions — are "important tools for providing care in keeping with patients' wishes."
The use of these directives has increased in the U.S. despite debate about their effectiveness. For the past two decades, hospitals and facilities that take Medicare patients are required to provide information on them.
A living will states a person's choices for treatment if he becomes incapacitated, but critics complain they are too vague to be helpful. A health care proxy names another person — usually a relative or friend — to make medical decisions if needed. Many people have both. Typical decisions involve the use of breathing machines or feeding tubes or giving someone CPR.
In the study, researchers looked at how often the elderly reach the point where they can't make their own care decisions near the end of life — usually because of dementia, a stroke or a debilitating illness. They also examined how many had living wills or a proxy and the outcome. The study included 3,746 people age 60 and older who died between 2000 and 2006. The average age was 80.
About 30 percent needed a treatment decision made before death but couldn't do it themselves. Of those, about two-thirds had either had living will, a proxy or both. After the person died, relatives were interviewed to find out if the person's wishes were followed. Most reported that they had. Nearly all the patients had wanted limited or "comfort" care; only 2 percent wanted aggressive care.
Advance directives are available for individual states online, http://www.caringinfo.org/PlanningAhead.htm, and an attorney isn't needed, a popular misconception, Silveira said. "We don't expect perfection out of these documents," she said. "They're there to make a difficult situation maybe a little bit less so."
Very good decision making information on a vital and sensitive subject.
NEW YORK - A significant number of the elderly — more than one in four — will eventually need someone to make end-of-life decisions about their medical care, a new study suggests. The results illustrate the value of people making their wishes known in a living will and designating someone to make treatment decisions for them, the researchers said.
In the study, those who spelled out their preferences in living wills usually got the treatment they wanted. Only a few wanted heroic measures to prolong their lives. The researchers said it's the first accounting of how many of the elderly really end up needing medical decisions made for them.
Last year, end-of-life care became embroiled in the health care reform debate. A provision in the legislation would have allowed Medicare to pay doctors for counseling patients about end-of-life issues like living wills. The study is in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine.
The researchers concluded that advance directives — living wills and health proxies chosen to make end-of-life decisions — are "important tools for providing care in keeping with patients' wishes."
The use of these directives has increased in the U.S. despite debate about their effectiveness. For the past two decades, hospitals and facilities that take Medicare patients are required to provide information on them.
A living will states a person's choices for treatment if he becomes incapacitated, but critics complain they are too vague to be helpful. A health care proxy names another person — usually a relative or friend — to make medical decisions if needed. Many people have both. Typical decisions involve the use of breathing machines or feeding tubes or giving someone CPR.
In the study, researchers looked at how often the elderly reach the point where they can't make their own care decisions near the end of life — usually because of dementia, a stroke or a debilitating illness. They also examined how many had living wills or a proxy and the outcome. The study included 3,746 people age 60 and older who died between 2000 and 2006. The average age was 80.
About 30 percent needed a treatment decision made before death but couldn't do it themselves. Of those, about two-thirds had either had living will, a proxy or both. After the person died, relatives were interviewed to find out if the person's wishes were followed. Most reported that they had. Nearly all the patients had wanted limited or "comfort" care; only 2 percent wanted aggressive care.
Advance directives are available for individual states online, http://www.caringinfo.org/PlanningAhead.htm, and an attorney isn't needed, a popular misconception, Silveira said. "We don't expect perfection out of these documents," she said. "They're there to make a difficult situation maybe a little bit less so."
Very good decision making information on a vital and sensitive subject.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Zillion Dollar Thought
“Researchers say that forty-seven Bibles are sold or distributed throughout the world every minute of the day…that’s zillions of the book that many consider the original guide for decision making.”
Monday, May 3, 2010
The Retirement Decision May Be Bad for Your Health
Based on their research and findings, the following article recommends that retirees who transition into temporary employment have better everyday health and experience fewer major illnesses than those who quit work entirely.
Credits and Acknowledgements:
Title: Bridge Employment and Retirees’ Health: A Longitudinal Investigation (PDF)
Authors: Yujie Zhan (University of Maryland) et al.
Publisher: Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, vol. 14, no. 4
Date Published: October 2009 By: Matt Palmquist
Can retirement be bad for your health?
It depends on how you retire, says this study. As more people rethink their post-retirement plans in a troubled economy, the authors argue that retirees who move from full-time work into a temporary or part-time job or self-employment remain in better health and suffer fewer major diseases than people who quit working completely. The researchers reached their conclusion by examining data on more than 12,000 people in their 50s and 60s who participated in the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, which was sponsored by the U.S. government’s National Institute on Aging.
Beginning in 1992, the participants were interviewed for as long as two hours about their health, employment history, finances, and work or retirement lifestyle every other year during a six-year period. The researchers controlled for a variety of factors, including baseline physical and mental health and participants’ age, sex, education level, and wealth. (Only physician-diagnosed health issues were considered, such as cancer, heart and lung disease, diabetes, stroke, and psychiatric disorders.)
The results revealed not only that retirees who continued to work in some capacity experienced fewer major illnesses than those who didn’t, but also that people who took post-retirement jobs related to their previous careers had better mental health than career changers; the authors believe that is because retirees who enter new fields experience more stress as they adapt to different work environments and job expectations.
Bottom Line:
Retirees who transition into temporary employment have better everyday health and experience fewer major illnesses than those who quit work entirely. Getting a post-retirement job in a related field can even boost mental health.
Excellent advice for this decision.
Credits and Acknowledgements:
Title: Bridge Employment and Retirees’ Health: A Longitudinal Investigation (PDF)
Authors: Yujie Zhan (University of Maryland) et al.
Publisher: Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, vol. 14, no. 4
Date Published: October 2009 By: Matt Palmquist
Can retirement be bad for your health?
It depends on how you retire, says this study. As more people rethink their post-retirement plans in a troubled economy, the authors argue that retirees who move from full-time work into a temporary or part-time job or self-employment remain in better health and suffer fewer major diseases than people who quit working completely. The researchers reached their conclusion by examining data on more than 12,000 people in their 50s and 60s who participated in the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, which was sponsored by the U.S. government’s National Institute on Aging.
Beginning in 1992, the participants were interviewed for as long as two hours about their health, employment history, finances, and work or retirement lifestyle every other year during a six-year period. The researchers controlled for a variety of factors, including baseline physical and mental health and participants’ age, sex, education level, and wealth. (Only physician-diagnosed health issues were considered, such as cancer, heart and lung disease, diabetes, stroke, and psychiatric disorders.)
The results revealed not only that retirees who continued to work in some capacity experienced fewer major illnesses than those who didn’t, but also that people who took post-retirement jobs related to their previous careers had better mental health than career changers; the authors believe that is because retirees who enter new fields experience more stress as they adapt to different work environments and job expectations.
Bottom Line:
Retirees who transition into temporary employment have better everyday health and experience fewer major illnesses than those who quit work entirely. Getting a post-retirement job in a related field can even boost mental health.
Excellent advice for this decision.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)