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Monday, November 29, 2010

Subjective Decisioning Techniques

The short list:
Instincts and Gut Feelings
(Intuition, Abstraction, Baseless, Intangible, Feelings, Hunches)
Herd Thinking
(Crowd Mentality, Blind faith, Parties, Non-objective, Rushing)
Pure Chance
(Cards, Dice, Coins, Eight-Ball, Roulette, Devices)
Astrology
(Charts, Zodiac Signs, Readings, Interpretations, Visions)
Various Traditions
(Calendars, Ceremonies, Celebrations, Holidays)
Social and Fraternal Influences
(Codes, Signs, Symbols, Handshakes, Rituals, Secrets)
Cultural Ideologies
(Sacrifices, Rituals, Customs)
Technological Influences
(Mobile Connections, Social Networks, Chat Rooms, Blogs)
Gadgets and Apps
(Computers, Smart Phones, Programs, Media Players, Digitals)
Clairvoyance-Psychics-Readings
(Visions, Readings, Signs, Symbols)
Family, Friends and Business Influences
(Bias, Prejudice, Tradition, Influence, Habit, Rituals)
Other Beliefs and Cults
(Evolution, Scientology, Church of the XXX, Zen Buddhism)
Churches, Denominations and Organizations
(Countless)

And then there is this:
How People Avoid Making Serious Decisions

http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/opre640/partXIII.htm#rhowtoavoid

Recourse to someone or something else:
Examples are astrology, palm readings, star gazing, 1-900 psychic friends, telepathy, telekinesis, aura, crystals, dreams, colors, Feng Shui, numerology, fortune-tellers, etc.

“In all these popular avoidance strategies, you are better off taking advice from Kermit the Frog. A New York City detective said, I've gone into hundreds of fortune-tellers, and have been told thousands of things, but nobody ever told me I was a policewoman getting ready to arrest them."

Fortune befriends the bold who make good (objective) decisions.
Nobody can give you wiser advice than yourself (based on your own research).

Do not think about it:
The decision makers who are waiting for something to just turn up, might start with their own shirt sleeves. You can either take action, or you can hang back and hope for a miracle. Miracles are great, but they are completely unpredictable.

Failure to reflect on the problem:
Reflection before action is often resisted by some managers. They often feel that reflection takes too much time, requires too much work, or they do not know much about decision problem or opportunity.

Be over-confident:
This makes you optimistic and then you make high risk decisions. As Henri Poincare said, "Doubt everything or believe everything: these are two equally convenient strategies. With either, we dispense with the need to think for ourselves."

Be too prudent:
Be over curious long enough to delay the decision. If you are too careful, you are so occupied in being careful that you are sure to stumble over what you are going to decide. Indecision is debilitating; it feeds upon itself; it is, one might almost say, habit-forming. Not only that, but it is contagious; it transmits itself to others who depend on you.

Pass the buck:
Pass off responsibility of making the decision to someone else. Do not make decisions by yourself. Bring in someone to blame if things go wrong.

“In all, decisioning subjectivity (of any kind) is the path of least resistance.”

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