Zillion Dollar Thought

World debt, public and private, since the beginning of currencies: ZILLION$.

Subjective Decisioning Techniques

The short list:
Instincts and Gut Feelings
(Intuition, Abstraction, Baseless, Intangible, Feelings, Hunches)
Herd Thinking
(Crowd Mentality, Blind faith, Parties, Non-objective, Rushing)
Pure Chance
(Cards, Dice, Coins, Eight-Ball, Roulette, Devices)
Astrology
(Charts, Zodiac Signs, Readings, Interpretations, Visions)
Various Traditions
(Calendars, Ceremonies, Celebrations, Holidays)
Social and Fraternal Influences
(Codes, Signs, Symbols, Handshakes, Rituals, Secrets)
Cultural Ideologies
(Sacrifices, Rituals, Customs)
Technological Influences
(Mobile Connections, Social Networks, Chat Rooms, Blogs)
Gadgets and Apps
(Computers, Smart Phones, Programs, Media Players, Digitals)
Clairvoyance-Psychics-Readings
(Visions, Readings, Signs, Symbols)
Family, Friends and Business Influences
(Bias, Prejudice, Tradition, Influence, Habit, Rituals)
Other Beliefs and Cults
(Evolution, Scientology, Church of the XXX, Zen Buddhism)
Churches, Denominations and Organizations
(Countless)

And then there is this:
How People Avoid Making Serious Decisions

http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/opre640/partXIII.htm#rhowtoavoid

Recourse to someone or something else:
Examples are astrology, palm readings, star gazing, 1-900 psychic friends, telepathy, telekinesis, aura, crystals, dreams, colors, Feng Shui, numerology, fortune-tellers, etc.

“In all these popular avoidance strategies, you are better off taking advice from Kermit the Frog. A New York City detective said, I've gone into hundreds of fortune-tellers, and have been told thousands of things, but nobody ever told me I was a policewoman getting ready to arrest them."

Fortune befriends the bold who make good (objective) decisions.
Nobody can give you wiser advice than yourself (based on your own research).

Do not think about it:
The decision makers who are waiting for something to just turn up, might start with their own shirt sleeves. You can either take action, or you can hang back and hope for a miracle. Miracles are great, but they are completely unpredictable.

Failure to reflect on the problem:
Reflection before action is often resisted by some managers. They often feel that reflection takes too much time, requires too much work, or they do not know much about decision problem or opportunity.

Be over-confident:
This makes you optimistic and then you make high risk decisions. As Henri Poincare said, "Doubt everything or believe everything: these are two equally convenient strategies. With either, we dispense with the need to think for ourselves."

Be too prudent:
Be over curious long enough to delay the decision. If you are too careful, you are so occupied in being careful that you are sure to stumble over what you are going to decide. Indecision is debilitating; it feeds upon itself; it is, one might almost say, habit-forming. Not only that, but it is contagious; it transmits itself to others who depend on you.

Pass the buck:
Pass off responsibility of making the decision to someone else. Do not make decisions by yourself. Bring in someone to blame if things go wrong.

“In all, decisioning subjectivity (of any kind) is the path of least resistance.”

“I got this here camera…”

Yes, we are right there. Cameras are now built into just about everything. Even the good ol’ boys in small remote towns can record your sales pitch.

Question: Have you decided to be camera ready?

Back when there was little threat of your production being on the world stage (www), you probably did little to organize, sanitize and homogenize your pitch. Now, you not only must re-think this dilemma, but you may want to make it a top priority. The cameras are rolling.

We could liken this scenario to a divorce. You can live and work with your spouse for most of your life. Then something happens and the marriage is broken. All that you have accumulated is now divided (usually starting at 50%). It’s gone.

In your business, a similar divorce can happen when the re-play of a misleading, misinformed, mismarketed, misspoken or misadvised presentation is played before a judge. And, what you have worked so hard to accumulate can also be gone, including your reputation.

Yes, we will all make unintentional mistakes, and they should be easy to defend. But, in this economy (highly litigious), we had better have our facts, agreements and recommendations as solid as steel.

The issue here is not so much a threat as it is practice management.

So, what if you reversed this camera exposure? You could record (with your own camera) your three minute infomercial to be played anytime or anywhere. Like most, you could not get all the features and benefits of all your products and services in this vignette, but you could get your unique core message on the table.

The easiest and most efficient facts to project would be in the model of how you operate. That would quickly and efficiently get your position and differentiation (USP) in front of your prospect with little room for a mistake. So, instead of them initiating the camera idea, you can precede that request with your own delivery.

Point is, when you are willing to commit your position to a recorded message (of most any form), it goes a long way in building a bridge of trust. Broken trust is often the basis of many forms of litigation.

If you struggle with what a model may include, here’s a suggestion:

Due Diligence/Suitability
Commitments
Solutions that Answer the Problem
Actionable Plans
Agreements

What you do not see are products and services. The main thing in any working model is that it is what you can definitely deliver and execute every time and without doubt. That is the primary issue of what will mitigate legal exposure.

Lights, camera…action?



Traits of Decisioning Professionals

Business people who are successful have to be exceptional decision makers. This is actually related to their leadership capacity. Their sense of due diligence, commitment, solutions and action is generally better than others. This gives them an edge over others in the rarely found commodities of risk taking and execution.

If we could establish our minimum traits list, it could begin like this:

They look for and find opportunities (not just problems)

They are solution focused (beginning with the end in mind)

They are fearful (like most) but not controlled, limited or stagnated by fear

They ask the right questions (at the right time)

They align themselves with like-minded people (with success track records)

They innovate rather than imitate (with a value proposition)

They are life-long learners (constantly educating themselves)

They are more interested in effectiveness (than with an easy answer)

They finish what they start (they complete their model)

They practice what they preach (not hypocritical)

ZDT Author’s Note:
Add to this list from your own experience…and please share back with us.

BP Made Bad Decisions Says Panel

Please refer to our Zillion Dollar Thinking Blog Post:
“A Sticky Situation: BP Forensic Decisioning”
Dated: Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Conclusions from a technical panel found that BP responded poorly to circumstances as they unfolded, leading to the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it was operating in the Gulf of Mexico. The report stated there was a “lack of operating discipline” concerning the signs of potential risk to the rig and operations, which were apparently ignored.

Findings from the National Academy of Engineering and the National Research Council:

Failures indicate the lack of a suitable approach for anticipating and managing the inherent risks, uncertainties, and dangers associated with deepwater drilling operations.

The accident was precipitated by a decision to proceed to temporarily abandon the well, despite indications from negative pressure tests that indicated problems with the well’s integrity

BP, its contractors, and the government did not identify or correct their critical mistakes

The decision to move ahead with completing the project was compounded by delays in realizing natural gas was flowing in the well and riser and the failure to take timely well-control actions

Proceeding to remove drilling mud from the well without installing a lockdown sleeve on the production casing wellhead seals may have also contributed to accident

The decisions to move ahead despite all the warning signs indicate an "insufficient consideration of risk and a lack of operating discipline"

There were insufficient checks and balances for decisions regarding schedule and procedures for well abandonment and considerations for well safety.

Other factors that may have contributed to this accident include BP's decision to use long string well design…the use of only six centralizers on casing and not running a bond log to assess cement integrity in the well

Credits and Links:
Posted by Thomas at 12:52 PM
Labels: BP, Deepwater Horizon, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Oil Spill

http://everythinggold.blogspot.com/

ZDT Author’s Note:
This was/is a decision debacle at the highest levels that started smoldering early on…see our post dated 6/30/10.

Where was the model?

Would/Could Forensic Decisioning help those who seem bent on defying reason?

The Case for the Niche Specialist

Today, as businesspeople, we must be aware of sales and marketing minefields that have the potential to explode the status quo. The "head in the sand" or "we are so busy doing the day to day" or "if it aint broke" syndromes will not find a happy end in today's environment.

We reviewed an archived article comparing 1903 to today. It is remarkable. Consider these facts:

-In 1903 the average life expectancy in the US was forty-seven (47)
-Only 14 percent of the homes in the US had a bathtub
-Only 8% of our homes had a telephone...and a three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost eleven dollars
-Only 8000 cars were on the road with the maximum limit of 10 mph
-Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee each had a greater population than California
-No Mother's Day or Father's Day
-One in ten US adults could not read or write
-Only 6% of all Americans graduated from high school

The reason these small examples are important is to illustrate the fascinating progress we have made since then and the time span it took with relatively limited technology. Now fast forward.

With our current and future technology, this picture will change dramatically. As businesspeople in the middle of all this compounding change, we will all be challenged to stay competitive and cognizant of what it will take to succeed in our new frontier.

In the world of communication, a remarkable transition is taking place daily...hourly…instantly. It will change the way marketing is conducted forever. The future of much of our marketing and communication will be from the position of universal portability and instant accessibility. A Universal Communication Device (UCD) * today called a "smart device" will eventually be our constant companion.

Question:

Are you, in your business or company, prepared for this revolution?

Niche specialists will be entering the new marketing landscape. Because of instantly emerging technology, this new arena will be transformed and rapidly create a level playing field both for the new and the established. As such, these niche specialists are not only aware of the emerging frontier, but are already re-engineering and are re-designing their sales and marketing communications methodologies with laser focus and speed.

These niche specialists are for hire to anyone at large. As a part of their assignment, they will use all the new tools to increase their market share [while diminishing the competition's market share...maybe yours]. And, as we can witness today, clients are less and less faithful in their business relationships and will jump-ship quickly...which will create a thunderous shake-up by these aggressive innovators.

Today, clients and customers are more and more "value-proposition" driven. We can expect them to be even more charged because the value-added bar will continue to be raised by...you guessed it...the niche specialists.

Point. If a business owner or management team would apply the last 100 years as a backboard, and today, develop strategic alliances with niche specialists whose sole purpose is to "help guide them and their business through this emerging minefield," their chances of success will be greatly enhanced.

Major Point. Niche specialists will come from a myriad of industries, but one of the most vital will be the sales and marketing niche specialist in specific sectors. That specialty will dictate the plan of execution over which most of the others will follow. So, in the case for the niche specialist, the marketplace will ultimately be the judge and jury, but from where we sit, we would not bet against their leadership and innovation.

Questions: Going forward, will it be status quo for you? Will you partner with a niche specialist? Will you become a niche specialist in your field of expertise?

Author’s Note:
This article was written in 2005 as a part of a Marketing Series. Has the prediction proven to be true? Do you still have an opportunity?

You decide.

* Broadband in Our Pockets by David Cohen August 4, 2004 www.clickz.com/experts/brand/emkt_strat/article.php/3389361

Zillion Dollar Thought

“Is the speed of light the same as the speed of dark?” What about the speed of light times (X) the speed of dark = Zillions per hour.

Nothing is More Important [Three]

Importance of Problem Solving and Decision Making
[An exhaustive study by Norman W. Edmund named Decision Making]

Earlier, Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon was quoted on the importance of problem solving and decision making. While he covered a wide area, there are many other instances in which it is of supreme importance. Just a very few are preserving the earth, preventing wars, human health, and improving government in all areas.

What’s Being Taught about Decision Making

Problem solving and decision making are taught to a limited extent in many schools and colleges. Various formulas for the stages are sometimes included and other times not. Many reports call for students to be proficient in problem solving and decision making. The need for teaching critical thinking is often mentioned without the realization that critical thinking is really problem solving and decision making.

Not much action results from these reports to improve problem solving and decision making. Many businesses have various training courses for their employees. Government agencies have hurt rather than helped. To make a long story short, the teaching and use of today’s body of decision making is very poor. There is little or no recognition of the need for a standard model. As a result we are, as a nation, doing a very inadequate job of problem solving and decision making.

What We Need to Do
(To name a few)

• Individuals should become life long students of the subject. They should encourage their children and friends to do the same.

• Those in the teaching profession should do everything they can to teach problem solving and decision making following a model.

• Employers should institute training courses. Organizations should promote problem solving and decision making.

• There should be a national plan to improve problem solving and decision making for teaching in our schools and for the education of those already working. And further, there should be seeded foundations that sponsor scholarships and incentives for achievement.

ZDT Author’s Comments:
How can we add to…or take away from this?

“Decisioning" is the new "decision making”

Nothing is More Important [Two]

In the Professional Decision Thinker (1983), Ben Heirs states:

“The same logic of decision making, I believe, applies to our managers and leaders. We can no longer afford to depend upon their natural thinking talents (gut response) alone.”

Since this is correct, here is a well-researched way that decision makers should proceed on certain aspects of decision making.

Decision makers should understand the “stage principle.”

Centuries ago it was recognized that there were basic mental activity stages to decision making. These stages are subject neutral. They will, of themselves, solve nothing. They are a guide. These stages also have been called steps, phases, processes, elements, ingredients, set of operations, elementary constituents, and others. It is desirable to standardize on one name, such as stages.

The value of the "stage" method

Without a method, we are left with chance and aimless wandering. Because there are basic stages to problem solving and decision making, we should have a method or model to follow. Over the years, thousands of model formulas have been offered for these mental activity stages.

The categories that need application

Critical thinking

This term is constantly used. If you research its real meaning, you find it is actually decision making and problem solving thinking.

Public policy and Government

Every day at all levels of government public policy decisions are being made. Because of inadequate teaching of decision making, there are often wrong decisions made.

Management in all organizations

It is self-evident that better problem solving and decision making by managers can greatly improve an organization’s profits and goals. A number of studies have shown that managers do not achieve much over 50% correct results in their decision making and problem solving. Remember that managers are also managers of the decision making of personnel under their supervision.

In recent years decision making is being pushed further and further down the ranks of employees. So, if our management leaders improve their decision making knowledge and skills, the benefit would be multiplied and widespread.

[To be continued]

Nothing is More Important

From: The Importance of and Need for Complete
Problem Solving and Decision Making

In Research Briefings (1986), Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon (father of Artificial Intelligence) stated:

“The work of managers, of scientists, of engineers, of lawyers…the work that steers the course of society and its economic and government organizations…is largely work of making decisions and solving problems…Nothing is more important.”

“It is the work of choosing issues that require attention, setting goals, finding or designing suitable courses of action, and evaluating and choosing among alternative actions. The first three of these activities (fixing agendas, setting goals, and designing actions) are usually called problem solving, the last, evaluating and choosing, is usually called decision making.

Nothing is more important for the well being of society than this work being performed effectively, that we address successfully the many problems requiring attention at the national level (the budget and trade deficits, AIDS, national security, the mitigation of earthquake damage), at the level of business organizations (product improvement, production efficiency, investment choices), and at the level of our individual lives (choosing a career or a school, buying a house).”

More on the Importance and the Need

In Complex Problem Solving (1991), Wagner states: “Mintzberg’s (1973) influential studies of what managers actually do, as opposed to what they are supposed to do, or what they say they do, provides unwelcome news to proponents of rational approaches to managerial problem solving.

Mintzberg found that even successful managers rarely, if ever, employed rational approaches. Rather than following a step-by-step sequence from problem definition to problem solution, managers typically groped along with only vague impressions about the nature of the problems they were dealing with, and with little idea of what the ultimate solution would be until they believed they found it (Mintzberg, Raisinghani, and Theorel, 1976).

Isenberg (1984) reached a similar conclusion in his analysis of how senior managers solve problems. The senior managers he studied did not follow the rational model of first defining problems, next assessing possible causes, and only then taking action to solve the problem. Instead they worked from general overriding concerns, and they worked simultaneously at a number of problems (fragmentation/confusion).”

ZDT Authors Note:

In all, these few paragraphs are an accurate reflection of an exhaustive study by Norman W. Edmund named Decision Making. This fellow was 91 at this publication and his discoveries were after a lifetime of study and research on the subject of decisioning. He further states that his research, grants and subsidies were backed by millions of dollars of investment.

Because his approach was so well funded, and his conclusions are so highly detailed, we will devote a couple of additional posts to his research and findings. His conclusions mirror our ZDT and MODELTM System very closely (with way less cost).

Show Them How You Think and Decide

As a Man Thinketh by James Allen has sold millions for over a hundred years. It is a short and efficient book with a timeless message. The adage, *As a man thinketh in his heart so is he, not only embraces the whole of a person’s being, but it also reaches out to every condition and circumstance of a person’s life.

He further states that a person literally becomes what they think about, and their character becomes the complete sum of all their thoughts [decisions].

With that as the premise, what would be the benefit to your clientele, friends and family to know how you think and decide (especially about them and their problems)?

The benefits:

They will see how important decisioning has become in your life and that it is a part of your character (a reinforcement of the above book and our human condition).

They will realize you have a concrete path that you can rely on in making important decisions for yourself (or for them).

They will see that you have a built-in accountability step in your process that creates transparency (you cannot have too much accountability).

They can see how you are able to separate levels and hierarchies of decisions and can direct valuable time more efficiently to the important issues of life decisioning.

They can see that you are in a very unique (USP) and exclusive category as a bright example of critical thinking and deciding.

Note: You can add to this list from your own experiences.

Of course, there are a zillion factors to consider in developing your own path. But again, if you boil it down to the minimums, you will need a transparent system, standard or model that is transferable to others. The keys to transferability will be making it simple, memorable and repeatable.

We would welcome your feedback and any results that you are willing to share.

* Proverbs 23: 7

How to Feed a Decision

Growth
All growth comes from some form of feeding…even decisions.

Food Sources
One source could come from: Fear…Doubt…Negativity
Another could come from: Love…Power…Positive Thought
There are a multitude of other sources.

Point is; the source of food has much to do with the final product e.g. “garbage in-garbage out.” As with any care-taking responsibility, if the object is not properly and consistently nourished and maintained, a fatality can be expected. That’s why many important decisions end up in the bone pile.

There are at least four types of sources that it takes to properly nourish a needed decision.

Feed the Facts (Due Diligence)
Today, there are few excuses for not feeding from this source. We have every possible resource (digital-electronic-wireless) to gather facts, information and intelligence to find/discover exactly what is needed. This is today’s Superfood that is available for a very low cost.

Feed the Commitment
Let’s call this source the secret component. It’s much like in a family recipe where the ingredients are well guarded, but that is the very reason that the end product is a prize winner. This secret formula should be included in every receipt, and with a heavy dose.

Feed the Solution
This is the recipe. This is where you select the right dish to fit the meal, taste and occasion. Be it Appetizers, Salads, Sides, Mains, Desserts…the right solution is no less important. The original facts and discovery should always support the appropriate solution. The right solution is vital to the right decision.

Feed the Action
None of the above (care and feeding) will cook without the right activities. Timing, stirring, shaking, mixing, temperatures and cooking are all activities that will make the dish a product of reality. This analogy may seem a bit abstract. But like any knowledgeable chef, they know that certain steps are vital and cannot be left out. They also know that a proven process will make the end product more predictable and exceptional. The preparation steps, ingredients and expertise are all irreplaceable to them.

The same is true in decisioning.

Food for thought?

How Will the Buyer and Seller Decide?

Q. If the buyer and the seller could definitively agree on the true objective between them, would that motivate both parties to work toward a more professional and agreeable process?

Forever, we have treated the buyer and seller roles as players in the “sale.” When in reality, the objective of this relationship is the goal of a decision. One path develops in the world of selling…the other, in the universe of decisioning.

The sales track says: Probe, Promote, Push, Close…
The decisioning model says: Discover, Commit, Solve, Act…

Going forward, which direction looks like a fit? As we are getting more technologically oriented (via smart digital apparatuses), our decisioning intelligence is automatically strengthening.

We will have an increasingly resistant attitude toward the cold, hard selling of yesterday. We do not want to be sold, but we will welcome the ones who can help us decide as long as they represent our best interest. The evidence of this recent election is real-time proof of what happens when selling is forced. Through voting (deciding) we demonstrated that, as Americans, we are smarter than that (“burned once...burned twice”).

As a by-product, we will get ever more critical and demanding (of the proof supported by facts) as we are developing our decisions. It’s true that hucksters will always be a part of our society; it’s just that we the people are continuing to resist that deception. Is this a one time assertion? No. We have to be vigilant, diligent and consistent in all of our efforts.

Again, our dilemma is cold selling or warm decisioning. The reason this is so important is that we are now living with a product of the former. I believe that in order for us to graduate to our next level of potential; we will all need to become better at decisioning as buyers and sellers in all commodities, governments and peoples. We really have no choice.

This election could serve as a wake up call in the form of wholesale resistance, or maybe this is the turning point where a more modeled approach to decisioning becomes the norm.

You decide.

Your Vote is Your Decision

Your vote is:

Your belief
Your number
Your representation
Your affiliation
Your legacy
Your responsibility
Your right
Your privilege
Your ability

In all, it’s your decision.

History has shown us that the vote, as a number, plays a vital role in politics. Here are five examples of how one vote really did make a difference in elections to the U.S. House of Representatives:

In 1829 in Kentucky, Nicholas Coleman defeated Adam Beatty 2,520 to 2,519.
In 1847 in Indiana, George G. Dunn defeated David M. Dobson 7,455 to 7,454.
In 1847 in Virginia, Thomas S. Flournoy defeated his opponent 650 to 649.
In 1854 in Illinois, James C. Allen defeated William B. Archer 8,452 to 8,451.
In 1882 in Virginia, Robert M. Mayo defeated George T. Garrison 10,505 to 10,504.

As a decision, your vote is your opportunity to exercise all of the above (and more). It is your commitment to your country and its governess. It is the solution to dictatorship or authoritarian rule. It requires that we participate in an active (vs. passive) role.

Please vote responsibility.