How Will You Keep Your Business Plan Off the Shelf?

Having read and seen scores of business and marketing plans and becoming involved in the development of many, there is a glaring trend that is somewhat disturbing and worrisome. It also presents a great opportunity.

Generally, a substantial amount of time and talent is invested in architecture of any plan. It is usually in proportion to the size and scope of the organization. Since larger organizations generally have complete departments and in-house specialists who are involved (with significant self-interest) in the development, tracking and execution of their company's plans, we will focus on the small to medium-size organizations for purposes of this review and consideration.

The glaring omission in the plans from smaller size organizations is that they lack "accountability" mechanisms and tracking devices. Today, the larger the organization, with all the new disclosure rules required by Wall Street and/or the government (e.g. Sarbanes Oxley), the more accountability has become mandatory. But, what about the average small business that makes up the bulk of our capitalistic economy?

Experts say that the lack of accountability inherent in a business or marketing plan almost seals the ultimate fate of the document and its goals right up front. Why? It's like any other scenario where laws or rules are broken but there is no threat of penalty. Examples: Constantly driving 120MPH and never having a fear of being caught and questioned or fined….or being a Congressman.

And yet, especially in smaller companies, where the company is the owner's "baby," the idea that someone or something would dare hold them or their plan performance accountable is unthinkable and real hard to sell. But, just imagine the zillions that will be wasted from the lack of execution of plans that will remain on the shelf.

In reality, accountability at this stage is exactly what is needed. Objectivity and accountability go hand-in-hand. The same "shoot from the hip" entrepreneurs are the very ones who are so close to the issue (or business) that they simply cannot see their operation or plan from an objective perspective. Maybe that is why so many of them fail. Many reports and the Small Business Administration say: "80%+ failure rate in the first 5 years."

To further compound the problem, the other stakeholders (affected employees) can also suffer from this faulty set-up. They can fall victim as a consequence of planning that has no accountability features or mechanisms. Yet ironically and without buy-in, these very same stakeholders are often the ones who are charged with the ultimate responsibility and execution of the business and marketing plans.

When business owners or principles solely purchase the latest and greatest business and marketing planning software, and proceed to fill in the blanks, they probably feel that they have achieved adequate planning once the final summary is completed. But, without the accountability factor built into the plan structure, (not always addressed in template plan software) this purely mechanical approach is flawed from the beginning.

There has probably never been a more important time for small to medium size organizations to seek outside specialists help in the design, formulation and accountability factor in the execution of their plans. Accountability can come in many forms, but a tracking system and teamwork that is monitored on a routine and consistent basis is generally the best format.

Action Points for Practitioners:

First, with your small business clients, probe about the importance of this subject (maybe give them this article). Next, consider taking the time to develop professional relationships with those who specialize in objectivity and accountability through their methodology and software solutions. Then, become a value-added resource who could potentially be a member of an accountability team, board or initiative. Remember, the primary goal here is to keep the plan off the shelf.

Wealth: One Question Four Times

A True Chronicle

I was unpacking all my stuff at a hotel in midtown NYC getting ready for a month’s stay. It was a part of the training schedule with a major securities firm. I was anxious to know who my roommate would be.

Surprisingly, he was a Middle Eastern defector who had clandestinely made his way to NY as a dock worker. His English was limited, but he worked hard to make enough money to take and pass all the securities requirements for a position in the firm.

He came to America because of the opportunities available to him in our free, open and capitalistic economy, and his goal was to earn enough money to bring his family here and secure their future. As a prosecuting attorney in his native country, he was plenty smart and had figured out that the US had what he needed.

Once the training school was completed and all the requirements were satisfied, he went back and asked his question to the local NY management, and consequently, he was relocated to Beverley Hills, CA.

When he got there, he could see that there were certain brokers who specialized in the “rich and famous” and were knee deep in commissions. So, he asked his question again and used his talents to link into this wealthy market through a broker who was accepting and sympathetic to his mission. The broker became his mentor.

As fate would have it, after about two years, his mentor died suddenly. All the accounts were transferred to him and he became a rich man. He was able to bring his family here, and his dream was secured.

All of this unfolded in only a few short years. I would not have believed this story unless I had witnessed it personally. It is amazing, yet true.

His Key Question (asked four times):
Where is the Money?

-In the open US Capitalist Economy
-At a major securities firm
-In Beverly Hills, CA, where the Super Rich live
-With a key broker who had a wealthy Hollywood clientele

Summary: He knew exactly what opportunities were available to him in a capitalistic economy. He was highly committed to his goal. He went straight to the target solution without getting bogged down in petty politics, personal distractions or obvious limitations (English Language-Foreigner-No Contacts). His actions were relentless.

Personal Application: Yes, it really can be that simple if we refuse to allow distractions, excuses and complications that derail our objectives and bog us down. Much of it today’s distractions come from technology: Social networks, internet and gadget apps, digital at every level, smart devices of every kind, 24/7 availability on and on.

Take away: Right Waters...Right Bait…Right Fish…Right Time…Success.

Digital Decisioning Effect

Question? What is the effect the digital age is having on decisioning in today’s economy and society? Considering all the tech advances, that question should have a totally positive answer. But, if we take a random sampling from across the decisioning spectrum, we may be surprised.

One example:
Information is Money in the Digital Age
Insight
By Ullrich Loeffler

According to their research, approximately three-quarters of companies suffer from information overload. In a recently released study Taming Information Chaos, IDC and Teradata quantified the gap between market leaders and average organizations' use of technology to support information-based decision making. Among findings of this study were that 75 per cent of the 1,072 respondents from 22 countries cited information overload, and many claimed that up to half of all information available to them is useless for their decision making.

Furthermore, respondents claimed that 37 per cent of all business decisions remain primarily 'gut' or instinctive. (Source: IDC White Paper, Taming Information Chaos, Nov 2007, sponsored by Teradata). These findings raise concerns about the business practices in many organizations and the urgent need for these companies to bring their information environments into order using technology.

It is common knowledge that business intelligence is one of the hottest technologies in the market and that many IT and business executives have included business intelligence solutions in their top 10 organizational priorities.

http://www.bdstrategy.com.au/information-management/business-intelligence/95-information-is-money-in-the-digital-age

Another source:
Decision Making in the Digital Age
Information Management Magazine
David K. Wessel

One of the characteristics that make us uniquely human is our ability to process information, make decisions and learn from the results of those decisions. However, the advent of the digital age has introduced a radical new element into the decision-making equation, especially in the corporate environment.

Today it is possible to access a seemingly limitless amount of data almost instantaneously. However, along with the need to wade through the daily media blitz comes the need to convert information into decisions and then into action at the "speed of thought." In this high-speed unforgiving environment, decision success or failure often falls straight to the bottom line.

How are managers and workers coping with the need for greater speed in decision making? And how are companies balancing the requirement for speed with the concomitant need for quality?
http://www.information-management.com/issues/20011201/4404-1.html

Another example:
Digital Age Decision-Making
Publication: Training

If conducting "business at the speed of thought" has left you feeling as though your "business" is getting away from you, you're not alone.

According to a recent survey on quality decision-making by Kepner-Tregoe (KT), Princeton, N.J., today's employees are being asked to make more decisions than ever before, but in less time and at the expense of quality, productivity and customer service, and now these beleaguered decision-makers are beginning to fall behind.

So why isn't all this "speed of thought" technology facilitating digital-speed decision-making? Because technology, with all of its decision-driving potential, still can't overcome the age-old barriers to quick, effective problem resolution, say KT's survey respondents. More than 40 percent claim that the culprits are organizational politics, changing priorities, and the need for multiple approvals that continue to impede the decision-making process.

Missing a Standard Model

Perhaps the most disturbing finding in KT's report involves the decision-making "memory" of most organizations. More than 90 percent of those surveyed believe that their companies are trying to reinvent the decision-making wheel, rather than capturing and sharing information about past decisions through modeling.

Full Article and Credits:
http://www.allbusiness.com/services/educational-services/4280609-1.html

ZDT Author’s Comments:
In just these three cases (with zillions more out there), we can easily see that even with all the tech advantages now available, we may well be only marginally better off. Here we find that information overload, pressure to perform and lack of a repeatable memory model are issues that can potentially make the decisioning process even tougher. So, as we go full circle from Adam and Eve’s original decision right up until today’s digital environment…we can still use all the help we can get.

Decisions Branded

Over our lifetime, the brands of our decisioning are constantly changing. Decisions can come in the form of:

Directions
Tools
Weapons
Stepping Stones
Voice and Votes
Other Objectives

No matter what purpose your decision serves, it is your statement, and it counts no matter what the role. Our continuing goal should be to make it as effective as possible. Never to be taken lightly or arbitrarily.

It looks like this next election (in only a few weeks) could be one of the most important in years. Your “vote decision,” added to all the others, will prove decisive in this hotly contested political season.

Your “weapon decision” to oust a manager who is determined to sabotage everyone’s interest, except his own, wears a different yet vital hat that could determine the direction of a company’s future.

The “stepping stone decision” is the one that takes you through the contiguous stages of the educational process. Depending on how seriously you take it, this continuing decision can determine your professional and career status for a lifetime…and on and on.

We could actually label these decisions as brands because they represent topics of decisioning that will seldom change in character and are identified by a category.

No matter how we frame it, decisioning today is vital, and it is getting much more important going forward (as in this election).

Sometimes simply stepping back to see the parallel of image branding to decision branding can help re-emphasize the crucial role [singularly and collectively] we all play when we decide on most anything.

Decisioning: Accept No Substitutes

This list and many other similar practices are common in our society. Not sure where and how many of them originated, and how they gained any authority. The problem today is that many use these topical answers as a substitute for sound decisioning. Check this short list to see if you agree.

Instincts and Gut Feelings
(Intuition, Abstract and Fact less driven)

Herd Thinking
(Crowd Mentality, Group/Agenda/Blind Faith driven)

Chance
(Cards, Dice, Slots, Roulette, Coins, Eight-Ball, Device oriented answers)

Astrology
(Predictions, Charts, Zodiac Signs, Readings, Interpretations, Visions, Stars)

Various Traditions
(Calendars, Ceremonies, Celebrations, Holidays, Others)

Social and Fraternal Influences
(Codes, Signs, Symbols, Handshakes and other Rituals)

Cultural Ideologies
(Sacrifices, Rituals, Customs, Political, Parties)

Technological Influences
(Mobile Connections, WiFi, Social Networks, Others)

Gadgets and Apparatuses
(Computers, Smart Phones, Devices, Media and Personalities, Others)

Clairvoyance-Psychics-Readings
(Visions, Signs and Images)

Individual/Institutional Influences
(Bias, Prejudice, Tradition, Rituals, Habits, Media Personalities)

Beliefs, Cults or Religions
(Scientology, Church of the XXX, Zen Buddhism, e.g.)

What they seem to share in general is that they are:

Outside Influenced
Dictated or Controlled
Absence of Critical Thinking
Habitual in Practice
Abstract, Subjective or Imaginary
Other (Diversions)

These methods are practiced by zillions every day at an increasing rate. As they become more and more acceptable substitutes for an objective and clearly designed methodology, the further the quality and effectiveness of our decisioning can suffer.

Just look around at the product of our collective decisions in this society.

We can all use help. Accept no substitutes.

Decisioning for Quality Assurance

Real scenario as follows:
One of the U.S. largest publishers owned no equipment and did no manufacturing.

Consequently, they had to rely on the trust of suppliers for the quality of their products.

Because the volume was significant…a defective lot was very costly from all sides.

The decision was to create a unique division [Quality Control in the publisher’s house].

The premise was simple [based on the Military Statistical Random Sampling model).

The math dictated that a totally random selection was sampled on various lot sizes.

The random sample predicted the condition of the entire lot based on the model.

The original goal was zero defects that later loosened up to 1%-2% once controlled.

The product that evolved transformed the controls, was highly efficient and created mega-cost savings.

Over the years, this initiative has been one of the strongest in terms of cost control, contract negotiation and management decisioning, that this publisher has ever attempted.

Question: Was it the initial decision or the quality assurance initiative…e.g. “the chicken or the egg” that became the hero?

ZDT Author’s Comment:
Since I was the manager involved in this initiative, please e-mail me for the details.

If You Were Selling Decisions

Imagine, if you had the wisdom, capacity and ability to make the best possible decision in just these few categories for yourself and those around you…what would that be worth?
[Hint: Zillion$]

Religions and Beliefs
Home or Shelter
Transportation
Education
Family and Lifestyle
Marriage and/or Divorce
Careers and Vocations
Insurance, Risk and Financial Management

Just look at the dollarized effect in only a couple of these subjects:

The Census Bureau Report found that, annually, $40 billion is paid in child support and alimony arrangements by 7.8 million payers, 84% of whom were men. In the U.S. the average divorce costs nearly $50,000, and $175,000,000,000.00 is spent annually on divorce, mostly on litigation.

Newly purchased automobiles that were taken back by the dealer or lien holder within first year:
Price Tag; $20,000,000,000.00

Life Insurance policies that were lapsed or dropped by the owner within first year:
Price Tag; $22,000,000,000.00

And now, millions of home mortgages are being “walked away from” at record levels…at a staggering cost and loss.

MILLION$, BILLION$, TRILLION$…ZILLION$

Summarily, of all the gifts and abilities one could covet, the ability to make timely, effective and lasting personal decisions would have to rank at the top.

But in addition, if this subject and ability was moved up to the various government entities and decision makers, it would not be a stretch to say that, in time, the entire federal deficit could potentially be reversed.

ZDT Question:
If you could sell actionable and predictable decisions to others tomorrow, how much more emphasis, expertise and planning would you place on your decisioning ability today?

Zillion Dollar Thought

Light travels at 300,000 kilometers per second.

The nearest big galaxy to our Milky Way, the Andromeda galaxy, is two million light-years away. The most distant galaxies we can now see are 10 or 12 billion light-years away. All galaxies…zillions.

What is the cost of poor decisions?

The question asked in a book by Wharton faculty entitled:
Wharton on Making Decisions

In their book, Barings Bank is the prominent example, and the authors Hoch and Kunreuther use that case to illustrate how a number of strategic errors in decisioning…that are discussed in detail in various chapters of their book, eventually led to accumulated trading losses for the bank of more than $1 billion.

The authors begin by recapping the key events of the story, starting with Nick Leeson’s decision on July 17, 1992, to cover up a mistake made by a new trader in the Barings Futures Singapore office. The trader had sold contracts instead of buying them, an error that would have cost the firm [chump change] approximately $29,000 to cover.

"Should Leeson have revealed the error to his superiors or concealed it?" the authors ask. "He decided to hide the mistake. What he justified initially as a desire to protect one of his employees snowballed into a habitual hiding [the decisions] of his own trading errors in the derivatives market…deceptions that three years later brought down Barings Bank. How did a back office clerk in his 20s become responsible for bankrupting one of the world’s oldest merchant banks?”

The answer: Many bad decisions.

ZDT Author’s Comments:
A very clear and real example of not only making a series of bad decisions, but the intentional cover up [which was also a decision] that could have been corrected by a relatively small cost (BP?). But, left to simmer, the ultimate cost was the failure of one of the world’s oldest financial institutions. Again, at the highest levels, the obvious mistake was the lack of cold objectivity and any decisioning model. The following chapter headings support that premise:

Blinded by Emotions
Over Reliance on Intuition
Emphasis on Speed
Failure to Detect Deception
Underestimating Risks
Insufficient Information Technology for Decision Support
Insufficient Monitoring and Control

Given the increased speed and complexity of today’s business environment, Hoch and Kunreuther note that: insights and objectivity in decision making are more important than ever.

We agree to the zillionth power.

There’s a Blog for That

Zillion Dollar Thinking

Technorati (internet search engine) estimates that there are over 100,000,000 active blogs out there with these growing statistics:

- Worldwide, they are doubling approximately every six months
- There are about 175,000 new blogs each day
- Roughly two new blogs per second
- About 1,600,000 postings per day
- About 13% of all blogs are updated at least weekly
- Many of the social site [Facebook, Twitter, etc.] authors are returning to blogs

The stats are endless and intriguing
More specifically, for any subject you may want to consider “there is a blog for that.” A blog (web log) is simply a platform of information.

Within this mix, if we were to try to select just one in the hierarchy of subjects, what might that be? From where we sit, almost everything begins with a decision [conscious or otherwise]. So, if we apply the blogosphere to this subject, we could have a real time paradigm shift. “Decisioning” has been remarkably enhanced through this viral medium.

If we beam up “decisions/decisioning/decision making” on most any search engine, we will see 80 to 100 million results (if we really think about it, the entire internet is filled with information that relates directly or indirectly to decisioning…so, we are really talking about …zillions).

Confusion
Then the common problem becomes…confusion and overload. As an example, here are only a few more complex decisioning topics:

Decision Making Analytics
Pareto Analysis
Paired Comparison Analysis
Grid Analysis
PMI
Force Field Analysis
Six Thinking Hats
Star Bursting
Stepladder Technique
Cost/Benefit Analysis Cash Flow Forecasting with Spreadsheets
Decision Trees

Zillion Dollar Thinking Blog
To break out of this pack of overwhelming volume and puzzling net-speak, we have a simple goal with our Zillion Dollar Thinking blog. We want to mitigate and squeeze the complexity and distortion out of this most important topic. Another goal is that it is a user friendly communication vehicle, and it creates wide applications. In effect, we want you (and us) to become increasingly better decision makers within a simple process. It’s in all of our best interest.

Please visit often, and let us hear from you.

Help Them Make a Decision...

About You.

In this tentative environment, many folks are re-engineering who they are and how they are communicating with prospects, influencers and hiring sources. That can be a daunting and intimidating challenge. If that is you, you have decisions to make, and others have decisions to make about you.

One school still abides by the “seat of the pants” strategy, or “winging it.” Other schools are holding in the casual approach of “we’ll see what happens.” And, then there are those who can see this picture for what it is…survival and the need for preparation. For those, this is a game changing time and a need for serious and more predictable medicine.

Question: When you are in the deciding process, would you rather listen to someone who has provably done their homework, or someone who simply wants to talk?

When anyone is presenting, we are generally looking past the messenger to find substance, credibility and their ability to execute on what they are promising. We are looking for authenticity and a track.

So, what seems more acceptable and believable…a model (structure/plan/system) or no model? The answer would seem like a no-brainer.

But, test it for yourself…

Next time you have a presentation to make (or you are trying to sell yourself), do what you always do first, and then next, try using an effective model as an alternative. If you have not yet adopted any of the zillion models available on-line, try this one:

- Due Diligence (proof that you did your homework on the subject or problem)

- Commitment (your provable level of seriousness and passion for the issue)

- Solution (how you and your support system can and will develop the answers)

- Action (a plan of action with timely steps of execution and accountabilities)

What happened? Chances are that you will change your paradigm.

Here’s the deal, people do not like uncertainty…that equals surprise and probable suicide to the presentation. Owning and demonstrating a tangible, logical and repeatable model (and gaining agreement of each step) is a far more predictable avenue to take in this hair trigger economic environment. Try it. Let us know.

The Ability to Question and the Freedom to Think

The Neglected Factor in Decision Making
Air University Review
March-April 1978

Over 32 years ago
Colonel Edsel R. Field (Author) wrote this excellent article highlighting the importance of dissent [re: objection/opposite view/disagreement] and its impact on decisioning. Except for the weighty influence of technology, little has changed.

When it’s Time to Challenge
How many times have you nodded assent during a meeting or as you coordinated on a paper, even when you did not totally agree? At the same time you may have recognized that implementation of the decision in its present form would not be feasible, and if put into action would lead to adverse and far reaching consequences.

Little has Changed
Much has been written concerning the importance of systematic approaches to executive decision-making. We have been taught, using various steps and terms, that we should identify the problem, consider alternatives, choose the best alternative, and implement the decision. Analytical and behavioral decision techniques continue to be advanced in various publications and courses. Are we, as a result, becoming increasingly successful leaders and managers? Is our greater knowledge of the decision process producing better results? I doubt it. George Odiorne supports this in his examination of the "activity trap," when he asks why things are going awry. New ideas should be improving the system, but their unintended side effects are killing us.

Find and Fix Quickly
Typically, we Americans are anxious to find the trouble and fix it as quickly as we can. We learn early that successful leaders should attack problems quickly and decisively, that decisiveness and confidence are desirable traits-key indicators of the effective leader. This is especially true in the military, where "battle-field" decisions are considered the ultimate test.

However, we seem to do a poorer job of anticipating change than of reacting to it. We spend relatively little time considering the consequences of our solutions. The consequences are often worse than the original problem. This is where our decision process seems to be the weakest…in failing to evaluate the consequences of important decisions prior to implementation. In short, it is not enough to be change-oriented; we must be consequence-oriented as well.

It is believed that the time is better spent in questioning debating, and dissenting before making a decision rather than trying to salvage flu results of a bad decision at a later date. To adopt such a methodology means that one must consider change on a wider scale than just problem solving. If executives are to be effective in the long run, they must evaluate alternatives not only in terms of the solution of an immediate problem but also in terms of the long-run implications of that solution.

Peter Drucker Pointed Out
Effective executives do not make a volume of decisions. They concentrate on the important ones. They try to think through what is strategic and generic, rather than "solve problems." They try to make the few important decisions on the highest level of conceptual understanding. They are not overly impressed by speed in decision making; instead, they know what the decision is all about, or what the underlying realities are which the decision has to satisfy. They want impact rather than technique; they want to be sound rather than clever.

A competitive and changing environment fosters a certain degree of risk and uncertainty for all leaders; decision makers are essentially risk takers. It is seldom possible to gather all the information concerning a problem. Not only is it prohibitive from a time or cost standpoint but sometimes misleading. Facts are concerned with what has already happened; decisions are concerned with the future.

Further
The easiest way to avoid risk and uncertainty is to deal with the present rather than the future, to concentrate on immediate problems rather than far-reaching strategies. No wonder so many organizations consist of people who are continually putting out fires, staying busy (but comfortable) in their "activity trap.” Today’s decision methodology actually encourages such activity.

These same principles can be applied to other decisions. The complete consequences of a decision must be forced into the open. Future benefits and total costs must be realistically weighed and debated. If the decision can profit from a trial test (such as with flights of the Concorde aircraft into certain airports), it makes sense to do so. If a test is not feasible, wide-ranging viewpoints must be solicited. The more critical the decision is, the greater the number of views should be sought. Dissenting or diverse viewpoints ultimately strengthen the final decision.

In Summary
Decision-making in an ivory tower immediately surrounded by harmony and conformity is relatively easy. Conversely, it takes strong, self confident and farsighted leaders to encourage questioning and dissent during their deliberations, along with intelligent and sober thinking subordinates to make such dissent effective. Are you, as a commander, capable, or even ready, to meet the challenge? Or is that warm glow that comes from putting out burning fires too comfortable? Think about it as you nod assent or coordinate on that next important decision. It may well be that our ability to question and the freedom to think and act may be our single most important advantage in any future conflict with our potential adversaries.

For full article and credits:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1978/mar-apr/field.html

ZDT Author Comments:
A keeper...excellent.

Decisioning is Spreading

Applications:

Risk Analysis and Appraisals
Solution Platforms
Evaluations
Credit and other Scores
Software Programs
Micro and Macro Controls
Underwriting Apps
Modeling-Programming-Processing
Fraud Management and Detection
Customer Acquisition
Collections and Recoveries
Analytics-Strategies-Planning

These are but a few categories that are now naming themselves under what used to be called “decision making.” It seems that we are witnessing the evolution of a new acronym framed as; “decisioning.”

That said, the nagging issue is still the same. No matter what lofty terminology is used, decisions will need to be made at every level. And, with the stakes higher than we can remember, they need to be right.

Again, there has never been a time in our history where the premium on decisioning has been more important. Let’s hope and pray that our decisioners recognize that, and they are committed to that end.